Who Will it be at OLB?

                By my count, there are five positions up for grabs on the defense this year, each with varying levels of competition. Those spots include the left outside linebacker position, both safety positions and two spots on the defensive line. Although there are two firmly entrenched starters on the d line (BJ Raji and Ryan Pickett), which typically features only three players, Ryan Pickett is virtually useless in passing situations. Beyond that, the defensive line is rotated far more heavily than any other position group, so I consider the passing down/substitution snaps given to the fourth lineman to be a starting spot. Ideally all five of these positions will have a clear starter by the end of the preseason, but that is far from a guarantee. The Packers were never able to lock down a starter at a couple defensive line positions and outside linebacker last year, and I believe it cost them dearly. So let’s take a look at the outside linebacker group first to see how things might shake out.

                Clay Matthews has been looking for a running mate since he came to town. He’s a great pass rusher to be sure, but even he can’t consistently outfox or outmuscle a triple team. A consistent pass rusher at the other outside linebacker position would go a long way in opening things up for the dynamic Matthews. Last year the Packers tried Frank Zombo, Brad Jones and Erik Walden at the position with below average results at best. None of those three players was able to develop into a consistent edge rushing threat despite having all shown flashes of ability in the past.

The players currently listed on the roster at outside linebacker include veterans Vic So’Oto, Matthews, Zombo and Walden (Jones remains on the roster for now but has been moved to inside linebacker), as well as newcomers Nick Perry, Terrell Manning and Dezman Moses. That may seem like a long list, but is actually not a lot of bodies to fill two important positions. Certainly at least two of those players will be cut before the season starts, and the list of those on the bubble is fairly easy to ascertain. Matthews is an obvious lock, and Perry was drafted too high to jettison just yet, even if he plays poorly throughout the offseason. That leaves So’Oto, Zombo, Walden, Manning and Moses fighting for what will likely be three roster spots.

Manning was drafted in the fifth round this year, and is young enough and cheap enough to be kept around for potential rather than immediate production. I don’t see him getting the ax. Moses has apparently been tearing it up in OTAs and training camp, but will need to continue this pace to make the squad. That being said, my money is on him to make the team. So that then leaves So’Oto, Zombo and Walden fighting for the last spot. These guys are all known quantities, in that the Packers’ staff has seen them play quite a bit. That’s a plus and a minus because they’ve proven they belong on the field in the NFL, but they’re a little bit older, have less of an upside, and would be a little more expensive than the rookies. Walden has probably shown the most explosiveness, but has severe limitations in coverage. Zombo is likely the most consistent of the three, having been described by Mike McCarthy as the only player ever to score a perfect game according to his grading system (which gives every player on the field either a plus or a minus for each play). So’Oto, while being a good story, never really saw the field on defense last year, and has probably the most work to do to make the team. So with the Packers hoping for some explosiveness from the new crop of OLB’s, I’d expect them to value consistency more than anything from a veteran backup. Zombo seems to be the most logical choice to make the squad and back up whichever of the three rookies ends up starting.

As far as who I think the starter will be, there’s really not enough information yet to make an definitive statement. I’d love to see Perry show enough mobility and coverage ability to be on the field as the starter week one, but there’s no telling how he’ll handle the transition from three point stance in college to two point stance in the pros. Moses has been a nice surprise so far in camp, but nobody knows how he’ll perform with the pads and the lights on. I don’t know much about Manning, but he’s the smallest of the five outside backers I see making the team, and he has no experience. Zombo has shown consistency and modest production, but he’s far from the dynamic outside rusher the team is looking for. If I had to guess now, I’d say Perry will get the nod strictly because of his athletic ability, but he’s got to show some productivity in training camp and the preseason for that to happen. Safe to say we’ll be better off at this position than last year, when we were relying on three ho-hum vets to complement one of the best outside rushers in the league.