THIS IS NOT ABOUT THE REFS!

But for real it's not about them.

Nobody wants to hear this, and I don't particularly want to write it, but yesterday's loss was not about the refs. Did we get fucked on the entire last drive? Of course. Phantom calls, indecision, the interception, it was all horrible. The refs did a horrible job. The Packers' offense also did a horrible job. How many games can we expect to win when we put up 12 points? Had we picked up the two point conversion we still would have had an opportunity to win the game in overtime. Crying about the refs is the coward's way out here. We got outplayed and outcoached on offense. So here's what I liked and didn't like about the game:

Thumbs Up:

1. Ball Security: Did not commit a single turnover in a close game. Obviously we didn't win, but not turning the ball over kept us in the game for its entirety. Yes we had two fumbles, but we recovered them both and neither one was particularly dangerous. Rodgers has been opting to take sacks versus throwing balls into coverage, which is commendable and takes a lot of patience.

2. Tackling: It started with AJ Hawk on the first drive, and spread to the entire defense. McCarthy was very clear about his displeasure with our tackling last year, and vowed to improve it. The defense has more than heeded the call and we are finally tackling with some ferocity. Big hits are all well and good (and extremely entertaining), but this year we are wrapping up and taking away those extra yards. This will pay off big time in the long run.

3. Uh... I Don't Know... The Uniforms: I don't know, who gives a shit, we fucking lost. Fuck that game.

Thumbs Down:

1. Offensive Play Calling: What was Mike McCarthy thinking during the first half? Was he trying to get Rodgers killed? How can you give up eight sacks in one half? I understand that you want to stick to your gameplan early on, you don't want to panic if things don't go exactly as planned, you want to trust your instincts, but eight sacks? Your tackles were getting beat on literally every play, you just have to give them some help. I don't know where the line is, but it's somewhere between three and five sacks that you have to bend a little bit. Keep a back or tight end or both in the backfield to help slow the rush. This is elementary stuff. Or how about this: call more than four fucking running plays to keep the defense honest. Dropping back nearly every play no matter the down and distance puts a ton of pressure on your offensive line, and they were clearly outmatched. I give McCarthy credit for making all the correct adjustments at half time, and Benson looked good again, but eight sacks in one half is an embarrassment. I honestly felt embarrassed watching that happen.

2. Offensive Tackles: Marshall Newhouse and Bryan Bulaga, you guys played poorly. As I've already stated, they deserved more help, but man oh man did they get beat up. In this offense, your number one job at either tackle position is to stop the outside pass rushers from getting to the golden boy. These guys barely slowed them down. Chris Clemons and Bruce Irvin combined for six sacks and just dominated the line of scrimmage. Aaron Rodgers has taken more sacks than any other QB in the league so far this year, and that is a stat that will ruin a season. Offensive linemen are the one black mark on Ted Thompson's otherwise sterling record. I know we're not going to change the starters or sign anybody at this point, but this has to get fixed now, or the season will be lost.

3. Replacement Refs

Week 3 Preview

Remember this game? Yeah, it was awesome.

Ok I’m predicting a Packer blowout and here’s why:

1.       Talent: We are a more talented team on paper, and it’s not close. Talent of course does not always equate to wins (see: Oakland Raiders 1984 – present), but the disparity is significant tonight. Start with the quarterback comparison (you could essentially stop there, but for posterity we’ll continue), move on to the receivers, take a quick look at the outside linebackers, then compare secondaries. We’re better, plain and simple.

2.       Discipline: The Seahawks are a team that plays with emotion. They’re lead by a college coach who still thinks he’s playing Stanford next week. Emotion is all well and good for momentum, but when it swings the wrong way, it takes talent and discipline to turn it around. The Packers are a team that prides themselves on discipline (i.e. ball security, assignment execution, avoiding stupid penalties, etc.), and that will not change tonight. The ‘Hawks are coming off a high-energy, emotional win off of the Cowboys, and are due for a letdown.

3.       Special Teams: A blocked punt and forced fumble on a kick return led directly to 10 points for the Seahawks last week. Dallas is a notoriously up and down team, whereas the Packers are typically steady as they go. Our phenomenal special teams units will likely not spot an inferior opponent 10 points by making Cowboy-esque bone-headed mistakes.

4.       Mike McCarthy: What could go under the radar as a trap game will no doubt be made first and foremost in the minds of the team and coaches by the hyper-prepared McCarthy. The Pack has had 11 days to prepare for the ‘Hawks, and I can assure you that time has not gone to waste. Pete Carroll is simply outmatched here.

5.       Offensive Regression to the Mean: The offense is coming off two straight disappointing showings and is due for a fucking explosion. Seriously, watch the fuck out Seattle d-backs, cuz you’re about to get torched the fuck up. The Packers’ offense is legendary, and they’re statistically, logically and emotionally due for a big game.

6.       Charles Woodson vs. Rookie Quarterback: Just ask Cam Newton, Christian Ponder, Matt Stafford and whoever else how they fared when throwing at the wily vet. He’ll get his hands on the ball tonight, just watch.

Notes:

-          Greg Jennings has said that he will be playing tonight, whereas Mike McCarthy described him as ‘a game time decision.’ I’d be very surprised if he wasn’t on the field for the start of the game tonight.

-          The Pack will face an old friend in Atari Bigby at the safety spot. The former starter in Green Bay is a spark plug defender who fits right in with the ‘Hawks emotional style. It’ll be good to see him again and I’ve always rooted for him.

-          Backup Matt Flynn has no doubt shared plenty of information with the Seahawks about the Packers’ offense, but Rodgers has written off any potential advantage, citing different verbage and dummy calls at the line. This won’t be the first time we’ve faced a former teammate, so I’m not too worried about our offense moving the ball.

Week Two in Review

A little bit of defense goes a long way, but a lot of defense goes even further. On a day when Aaron Rodgers looked about as bad as he ever has, the Pack came away with a win thanks to some ferocious play on defense. Thank you Jay Cutler for the bulletin board material, and you’re welcome for shoving it up your ass.

Thumbs Up:

1       Defensive Game Plan: Dom Capers drew up a beauty here folks. With a home loss in week one, a divisional opponent coming to town, and Jay Cutler flapping his gums during the week, the pressure was on the defense. The plan was obvious from the get go: take Brandon Marshall out of the game with Tramon Williams underneath and a safety over top and test the offensive line by bringing pressure from different angles. Both strategies worked to perfection as Cutler was sacked seven times and Marshall had exactly one catch, which occurred in garbage time. Yes the pass rush was spectacular and Clay Matthews was his explosive self, but the sacks were more about scheme and coverage than any one player. The defensive line finally woke up, we got pressure from both inside and outside linebackers, we rotated players in and out to keep them fresh, and when we didn’t get home, the d-backs made plays. This was a phenomenal team effort that started at the top and included just about everyone.

2       Special Teams: Another week, another explosive special teams play. Holy shit was that fake field goal executed flawlessly. Mike McCarthy said they’d been working on that play for three years, and the perfect opportunity finally presented itself. Beyond that, Crosby was perfect on three medium to long range attempts and Masthay did his thing. The most dangerous return man in the history of football was completely neutralized by accurate punting and strong coverage. Someone buy Shawn Slocum a beer.

3       Cedric Benson: Although his numbers will look unspectacular (81 yds rushing, 35 yds receiving, no touchdowns), he turned in a gutsy performance. He averaged over four yards per carry against a very good defense without much help from his offensive line. He was fantastic after contact and seemed to be feeding off the physicality of the defense. He shied away from not a single hit yesterday and refused to go down without a fight. He seems to be gaining a comfort level with the team and should continue to improve as the season goes on. Imagine what he could do with some decent blocking…

Thumbs Down:

1       BALL SECURITY: Jermichael Finley committed a potentially costly fumble in Chicago territory and Aaron Rodgers threw his second pick in as many weeks. Now the pick was 95% James Jones’ fault, but a turnover is a turnover. If our defense had not produced four turnovers of their own, these two mistakes would look much more glaring. Turnover margin is perhaps the most critical stat in all of football when it comes to winning games, and we simply cannot continue spotting teams the ball. Clean it up McCarthy.

2       Offensive Line: Again, if our defense had not produced seven sacks of their own, the five that we gave up would have looked like a much bigger deal. The fact is, Rodgers looked uncomfortable for most of the game. He was getting very little time in the pocket and simply wasn’t himself. Yes the Bears can rush the passer, but so can half of the other teams in the league. We have to protect better or we risk decreased production, turnovers, and even an injury to Rodgers. I’d rather not see Graham Harrell under center this year. Despite Benson’s 4.1 ypc average, the line did little to open holes for him, and he took plenty of contact in the backfield. Signing a good back is all well and good, but we’ve got to give him a chance to get into the second level and break a long one.

3       Third Down Offense: Speaking of contact in the backfield, we were horrible on third down, and specifically third and short. Four for fourteen on third down is unacceptable. I can’t remember the last time I felt confident on third and one, and our offense has been awesome for years. Why can’t we get better at this? What is it going to take for us to be able to pick up one yard when the defense knows that’s all we need? This is not about trickery or creativity or scheme or any of that. This is about one fucking yard and a little push up front.

Notes:

-       Sam Shields got the start at corner opposite Tramon Williams

-       Charles Tillman is the best in the league at punching the ball out, and has been for years

-      Dezman Moses got some PT, and even beat J-Marcus Webb for what would have been a clear shot at Cutler had he not been blatantly held

-       The replacement refs were once again terrible

-       Charles Woodson calmed his teammates down during a scuffle that could have escalated

-        AJ Hawk had a fantastic game

-        Jay Cutler is a bitch

Why Jay Cutler Will be Under Pressure Thursday

Our pass defense was horrible last year largely because of our inability to rush the passer. With four sacks in our week one matchup, we’ve got a chance to fix that problem. I believe we’ll continue to get after the quarterback in week two because of the following reasons:

1. Clay Matthews looked to be in mid-season form on Sunday. He was flying around with reckless abandon and looked like his old, psycho self. He fights so hard that his body tends to get nicked up as the season progresses. He is, in fact, the one and only player that the Packers' equipment manager brings an extra helmet for every game, since he breaks his own so often. As for right now he appears to be completely healthy, and is a force to be reckoned with for sure.

2. The tandem opposite Matthews WILL require some attention. Nick Perry has shown, if nothing else, a forceful bull rush. He has pushed more than one left tackle straight back into their quarterback in his preseason and regular season action. His speed moves have not looked too sharp just yet, but that could develop over time. Erik Walden is back from his one game suspension this week, and will spell Perry for what I believe will be a significant number of snaps. Walden had his best game as a pro against the Bears in week 17 of 2010, when he recorded three sacks, including a bone crusher on the first play of the game. He cannot cover in space, but I guarantee he'll get after the quarterback. The fact that these two will be splitting snaps means they'll both be fresh when they're on the field, and they'll likely face single man protection with Matthews on the other side. Look for one or both of these dudes to record a sack.

3. Charles Woodson WILL be blitzing from the safety and slot positions. I'll be tallying the number of times Wood is sent on a blitz for the rest of the season, because it seems like he gets home nearly every single time. He recorded 1.5 sacks last week, and has had success blitzing against the Bears in the past. Now I'm not saying I want Woodson blitzing seven, eight, nine times a game (since he's way more valuable as a ball hawk in coverage), but god damn is he effective two, three, four times a game. Oh and when he does get to the cube, he's not just looking to tackle him, he wants the ball too.

4. Last and far from least, the Bears offensive line is fucked. These guys suck. For real. I mean seriously. J'Marcus Webb is one of the worst left tackles in the league, and right tackle Gabe Carimi (though highly drafted and a fan favorite from his days at Wisconsin) has played a total of seven quarters of professional football. You're telling me he's ready to block a healthy Clay Matthews?! Yeah fucking right.

 If we can do a decent job against the run, and force them into third and long a few times, we should be able to make some big plays. Now pressure on the quarterback doesn't necessarily equate to a win, the offense needs to do their job as well. Aaron Rodgers has played some of his worst football against the Bears, who will continue to use two safeties over the top to limit the number of deep ball opportunities. Attacking downfield is in Rodgers' DNA, so he'll need to use discretion in taking what's given to him and being a little more patient. That being said, putting Jay Cutler on his ass will go a long way towards a W on Thursday.

Week One in Review

Seeing Nick Collins as a captain tugged at the old heart strings a bit. Good luck Nick!

The Packers have started the 2012 season with a thud, losing 30 – 22 at home to the 49ers. There will be no run at perfection this year and no talk of ‘best team ever.’ The Pack is now 2 – 3 in their last five games, including last year’s playoff loss to the Giants. While the trend is not positive, we are a far cry away from panic time. The fact is, the 49ers returned the best defense in the league last season and played accordingly, making yards and points tough to come by for the Packers in the early going. Our defense showed some of the same issues from last year, but did not play horribly. Of course Alex Smith is no Drew Breese, so you would have liked to shut him down, but this revamped defense needs some time to get to know each other. There were some positive notes to go along with the overall negative game, and at the end of the day it’s still just one loss.

Thumbs Up:

1.       RANDALL COBB!!! This guy is straight up electric. He was targeted nine times yesterday for a total of nine catches and 77 yards. He was sure handed, confident in his assignments, effective after the catch, and the team’s best pass catcher. The 49ers went to great lengths to prevent Jordy Nelson and Greg Jennings from beating them deep (namely playing two safeties deep nearly the entire game), which created opportunities for Cobb underneath. The precocious second year veteran took advantage of every inch he was given by the defense. His punt return for a touchdown was sensational and timely. He has great vision on special teams, which we’ll return to shortly.

2.       Clay Matthews. Two and a half sacks are a great line for any outside linebacker, but add in two tackles for loss and four quarterback hits, and it’s obvious that Matthews was all over the field yesterday. Matthews faced only one blocker time and time again, and he made the Niners pay. I wonder how much of the single man attention given Matthews was the result of this year’s draft picks threatening to make plays from other spots on the field. In other words, even though Perry, Worthy, Daniels and even Raji didn’t create much pressure themselves, was their presence enough to free up Matthews like two seasons ago? Either way, fantastic effort from Clay, and a great sign of potential things to come this year.

3.       Special Teams. The Cobb return was the obvious difference maker for special teams. It came at a time when a quick touchdown was exactly what we needed, and it is so exciting to see a legitimate return game in Green Bay. Beyond Cobb, Tim Masthay punted six times for an average of over 48 yards, and pinned four punts inside the 20. This guy is likely the best punter in the league, and showed why he was given a lucrative contract extension. Crosby did not attempt any field goals, but limited the Niners to one kickoff return, recording a touchback three out of four times. Still waiting to see him face a high pressure kick.

Thumbs Down:

1.       Secondary. We only gave up 211 yards in the air, but the communication was often frantic and at times downright laughable. There were missed assignments galore, which led directly to points on more than one occasion. Frankly, we’re lucky we didn’t give up more points through the air. Now, there were new starters at both the strong safety (Woodson) and Z corner (Jarrett Bush) positions, and secondaries (like offensive lines) take time to gel. I’m not writing off our pass defense yet, and I think our defense will evolve to be much better than they were last year. That being said, they did not exactly look sharp in their first effort.

2.       D.J. Smith. I didn’t want to put him here, and he didn’t really have a bad game. The fact is, he is a significant downgrade from Desmond Bishop. Sure he had nine tackles and didn’t give up any obvious huge plays, but he showed no explosiveness or playmaking ability. He essentially looks like A.J. Hawk lite, which is still a fine player, just not a difference maker. He has gotten to this point in his career by outworking the competition, so let’s hope he can work to hone his instincts and take his game to the next level. If not, don’t expect many impact plays from our inside linebackers this year.

3.       Replacement Refs. Now I’m definitely not going to say that they cost us the game. As a matter of fact, their bumbling buffoonery may very well have benefitted us. The bottom line is that they did a bad to horrible job in yesterday’s game. They took forever to make calls, missed obvious calls, did not look confident, called a block in the back on a KICKING team (I would guess that hasn’t been called more than once in the last decade in the league), and certainly had an effect on the game. Both teams have to deal with them, so it’s not necessarily an advantage for anyone, but it won’t be long until these jokers really fuck something up that changes the outcome of a game. I’m just hoping it doesn’t happen to us.

It was not an ideal start to the season, but I am not worried even a little bit. We’ve got a short turnaround to play the Bears at home, and a win on Thursday would go a long way. The reality is that this could be another loss, and tons of people will hit the panic button if that happens. I’ve said it before, but professional athletes know how to react when their backs are against the wall. It’s easy for them to rise to the occasion when nobody says they can. The pressure that comes from expectation far exceeds that of the pressure that comes from doubters. Of course a win yesterday and a win on Thursday would be better, but all is not lost if we start the year 0 – 2. I look for our front seven to create all kinds of pressure for Jay Cutler on Thursday, which should lead to a couple of picks. Cutler will throw balls up from time to time, and our d-backs know how to capitalize. Anyway, fuck the doubters, keep your chin up, GO PACK!

Regular Season First Quarter Preview

The NFL is a constantly changing league in which last year’s cellar dwellers can become this year’s contenders. It’s a league with parity unlike any other sport, which is a major part of what makes the NFL great. One downside is that it becomes exceedingly difficult to predict the quality of play from year to year. Every fan naturally wants to look at his/her team’s schedule and make predictions about who they will or won’t beat. The fact is, strength of schedule (based on last year’s records) is not a useful tool for prediction. That being said, I’d like to do a quick preview of the first quarter of the 2012 regular season for the Pack, as I believe we can know with some level of accuracy what our opponents will look like one to four weeks from now.

The Packers’ schedule starts off with a bang this year, as they face last year’s NFC championship contenders in the San Francisco 49ers. The Niners’ game plan is an obvious and revered one, mainly running the ball to set up play action, and playing hard-nosed defense. Nobody can deny the tenacity of this defense, which returns almost entirely intact from last year. They rush the passer, tackle with ferocity, cover well and generally pound the shit out of whatever offense they’re matched up against. There’s really no good time to face a defense like this. Although they’re pretty one dimensional on offense (thanks to sub-par quarterback play from Alex Smith), they do have some weapons beyond Frank Gore. Vernon Davis is as tough to cover as anyone down the middle, and they added a talented asshole named Randy Moss this year. We’ll see if his old bones can still go deep, but don’t count on them running to his side. Blocking has never been his thing. This will no doubt be a tough test for the Pack, but one I believe they’ll stand up to. It’s strength versus strength when the Packers have the ball, and I honestly feel we’ll be just a bit more crisp.

Week two is a home game against the Bears. These games do usually end up as ‘throw the record out slugfests,’ but there will really be no records to throw out. Both teams put their best feet forward for this matchup. There’s been a lot of talk about the Bears improving during the offseason, and Brandon Marshall is apparently Jesus Christ if you ask the media. I’m not buying it. Who is starting along the offensive line? You don’t know? Well I wouldn’t feel too bad because they don’t know either. Mike Tice is running the show and that guy is a clown. Their defense is old as dirt and they just can’t cover our weapons. I’m way less worried about this game than I am about the Niners.

Week three is an away game against the Seahawks, which could turn out to be a trap game because the Hawks suck. ‘The Link’ is a notoriously noisy stadium which puts added pressure on the offense and can lead to pre snap penalties and bungled adjustments at the line. That being said Russell Wilson is allegedly starting at quarterback, and this will be his third game as a starter. I lost interest in this matchup when Matt Flynn lost his starting job. Mike McCarthy and his staff are not one to overlook anyone, so let’s just hope the players follow suit.

Week four is a battle of offensive juggernauts as the Saints visit Lambeau field for the second time in as many years. This matchup could really go either way, as evidenced by last season’s week one track meet. Don’t look for much defense in this one as both offenses return mostly intact. Sean Payton may be watching from home (probably eating fried butter and pickled cheating), but Drew Brees will still be under center. This team will be playing with a chip on its shoulder thanks to the hefty Turkey-Neck Goodell suspensions, so let’s just hope the adrenaline inducing anger has worn off by week four.

There’s no denying that this is a tough first quarter of football for Green Bay. They could easily go 1-3 to start the season. That’s how this league works. You better not get complacent or you will be passed up in a hurry. Week one against the Niners is an opportunity to set the tone for the season, and will be a great challenge for a team with lofty expectations. Of course I’m predicting a 4-0 start, but I’m a moron.