Monday, December 17, 2012

Week 15 Review

The Packers have claimed their second straight division championship by continuing their domination of the Chicago Bears. Having won eight of the last nine matchups against Chicago, and a staggering 13 straight division games, the Packers continue to assert their supremacy in the NFC North. These are without a doubt the most important games to win during the regular season, and the current roster and coaching staff have shown a spectacular ability to do so. It’s time now to fight for a first round bye in the playoffs, and we’re in damn good position to get there. We need two wins and one San Fran loss to lock up the number two seed, but I’d rather be a healthy three seed than a banged up two seed. Let’s hope we continue to get healthier, continue to gel as a unit, and continue to win the most important games that we play. Here’s what I liked and didn’t like.

What I Liked:

If you can prove that you predicted James Jones would lead the NFL in TD's by week 15 this year, I will buy you the biggest beer you can find.
James Jones: It’s not just that he had three touchdowns. It’s not just that he leads the NFL in touchdown receptions. It’s not even that impossibly confident strut he broke out after his final score yesterday. For me, it’s the way he’s gone about his business. Take yesterday’s game for example. He scored three times on three completely different routes, from three different positions. He was split out wide right when he torched Hayden with a beautiful out and up route. He was in the slot left when he fought his way in on a crossing route. And he was lined up wide left when he scored on a fade route. James has endured plenty of criticism in his six years in Green Bay, but has never once complained. He has worked to get better, understands the value of each opportunity he gets, and has clearly mastered the offense. He is a shining example of our coaching staff’s ability to develop a young player, and prepare him to be a leader in the NFL. Receivers coach Edgar Bennett, offensive coordinator Tom Clements, and Aaron Rodgers deserve plenty of credit here, but nobody deserves as much praise as the blue collar Jones.

Clay Matthews: My god, what a difference maker this guy is. Undeniable lynchpin to the success of this defense. He had two sacks of his own, but undoubtedly contributed to the sacks recorded by d-linemen Mike Neal and Jerel Worthy. He looked to be playing at about 85% to me, and was even held out on some running downs. Give credit to the medical staff for not rushing him back, and credit to the coaching staff for picking the right times to throw him into the fray. He struck me as somewhat subdued yesterday, which is fine by me. Let him unleash the fucking maniac in the playoffs. I just really wonder what it is that makes him so damn effective at rushing the passer, and why nobody else on our defense can do what he does. Either way it’s great to have him back.

Don Barclay: I’ve said it plenty of times before, but I’m not qualified to analyze the play of an offensive lineman. Like most fans, I’m usually watching the ball, and therefore never watching the guys in the trenches. That being said, going completely unnoticed is about the most ringing endorsement I can give an o-lineman. So congratulations Don Barclay on going up against one of the toughest pass rushers in the history of the NFL, and going completely unnoticed. I gotta believe he graded out positively in yesterday’s game at the ultra-important right tackle position. Depth on the offensive line is absolutely crucial, and we appear to have it.

What I Didn’t Like:

Trick Play: Ok look, I’ve gone on record as being in favor of gadget plays. They’re exciting, can generate points, and give the opposition one more thing to think about. That being said, yesterday’s punt pass struck me as a bit hair-brained. The reality is that the play looked like it would have worked had Jeremy Ross caught the ball, but that’s not the point. We were flagged for holding, but that’s not the point either. The point is that we were up by two scores, receiving the ball, with just eight minutes left. I praised McCarthy a couple weeks ago for knowing when and when not to call an aggressive gadget play, but he sure proved me wrong here. I honestly liked the play, I just hated the timing of it.

Mason Crosby: McCarthy said in his post-game press conference that the Packers are going to stick with Mason Crosby no matter what. Color me confused. The time is now to dump this dude, bring in somebody (ANYBODY!) else, give him two weeks to get his feet wet, and go into the playoffs with a tiny shred of confidence in you kicker. If we lose in the playoffs on a Mason Crosby miss, the decision to keep him around will be second guessed till the cows come home, and I’ll be pissed off for at least a week. Crosby is finished in the NFL, and the sooner we accept that, the better.

Can't have this shit. Can. Not. Have. It.
Aaron Rodgers Taking Hits: It’s one thing if your o-line gets beat for a sack. It’s one thing if a defender hits you up high illegally. It’s another thing entirely when you take an unnecessary and potentially devastating hit reaching for a first down when we’re up by two scores and already in field goal range. Well, field goal range if we had a real kicker. How has he not learned this lesson yet? It seems to me that for a guy as smart as Aaron Rodgers to continue making the same mistake, there must be something else going on. Is he so eager to prove that he’s an athletic quarterback that he’s willing to risk his season to do it? I’m not saying that’s necessarily the case, but how else can you explain his stubbornness when it comes to taking hits on the run?

It feels great to have locked up a spot in the tournament, and it feels even better to have done so at the expense of the Bears. Just think, for just a minute, how shitty it would be to have Jay Cutler as your quarterback. He is the worst. Anyway thank god he plays for the Bears. We’ve now won eight of our last nine, and have somehow managed to stay under the radar while doing it. I guess losing a couple of games early on may not have been the worst thing for this team. We seem to be hitting our stride at the right time, and not one person in the locker room is happy with an NFC North Championship. They all want more, and they know how to get it. You better believe that nobody wants to see Green Bay in the playoffs.

Wednesday, December 5, 2012

Week 12 Review

Good teams win the games they’re supposed to win. Pretty simple. This game could easily have been lost, but the Packers found a way to make crucial plays at crucial times. It’s week 12, and we’ve yet to hit our stride, but 3-0 in the division and 8-4 overall is a pretty darn good spot to be in for a team playing below their potential. We still control our own destiny and continue to work our way towards a healthier roster. The NFL is about getting hot at the right time, and we’re in prime position to do just that. Here’s what I liked and didn’t like.

What I Liked:

Vision, ball skills, assignment execution, this play had it all
Young Defensive Backs: The young defensive backs continue to paint a bright picture for the future of this secondary. You'll never replace a player like Charles Woodson, but these guys are showing that they can make plays. Morgan Burnett was the obvious player of the game, and his two picks were huge plays. McCarthy said his pick in the end zone was 'the turning point in the game,' and his other pick was a beautiful Woodson-esque undercut. Casey Heyward has held opposing QBs to a passer rating of 0.0 when throwing in his direction this year. In other words, he's been playing like Al Harris with hands. Davon House has had some ups and downs, but he is flashing some great coverage ability. I think as he gets more comfortable, he'll be able to make more plays on the ball while in step-for-step coverage. I've yet to be impressed by the safeties McMillian and Jennings.

Running Game: Green and Starks combined for 27 total carries, and averaged 4.8 and 4.4 yards per carry respectively. Starks also recorded our third rushing touchdown on a beautifully blocked toss play that went for 22 yards. In total we had 36 rushing attempts to 35 passing attempts. That kind of balance on offense gets me sexually aroused. No running back on our roster will ever be a dynamic, Adrian Peterson type runner, but they are more than capable of creating balance to facilitate our explosive passing game. The patchwork offensive line deserves a ton of credit for opening up some holes for these guys. Overall it was a solid day for our ground game and hopefully a sign of things to come

Response to Adversity: The Pack was facing all kinds of adversity on Sunday. Going into the game we were down plenty of key starters and were coming off an embarrassing loss to the Giants. During the game we lost another offensive lineman and another wide receiver, leaving both positions precariously thin. Back-ups were once again forced into action and delivered. Were you comfortable watching Don Barclay waddle onto the field? Yeah right you fucking liar. Anyway he played quite well at the extremely important right tackle position, and may have unseated Evan Dietrich-Smith as the primary back-up on the offensive line. We had our backs against the wall coming out of half time with the Vikings threatening inside the ten yard line, and responded like a playoff worthy team. We ain't backing into nothing, this is the NFL, not the Big Ten.

What I Didn't Like:

Tackling: Unacceptable. Un-fucking-acceptable. Every single player on the defense should be embarrassed by the horrific display of tackling they put on yesterday. Don't they know there are children watching these games? It's exactly this kind of ole` bullshit that leads to primadona, soft as marshmallow, fundamentally flawed players taking over this previously badass league. Too many Desean Jacksons, not enough London Fletchers. Teams are only allowed to practice in pads once a week thanks to the league's 'over-react-to-cover-our-ass-before-we-get-sued-for-a-billion-dollars-over-concussions' policy. I think that's a factor, but why is it that teams like the Bears and Ravens and Steelers still tackle with efficiency and ferocity? The coaches can only do so much to encourage sound tackling, and frankly I'd rather not have our best players knocking heads with each other during practice. I think the change here needs to come from the leaders in the locker room. We need to take on a blue-collar mentality on defense that emphasizes tackling over big hits, team over individual, substance over style. Sacks and interceptions are great, but tackling wins you games. I know it sounds cliche, but it's a fact. I'm looking at you Charles Woodson and Ryan Pickett.

Short Yardage Offense: Why is 3rd and 1 so hard for us? We have nobody that can gain one yard when everyone knows we only need one yard. I like John Kuhn as much as the next guy, but he's clearly not the answer in short yardage. Rodgers is not particularly good at the half-yard sneak behind the center, and I don't think our interior offensive line creates much of a push. I hate the fact that we pretty much have to throw in these situations, and it seems like the only reason we run the ball is to prevent the defense from selling out on the pass the next time around. I'm starting to think that some folks on the sideline might prefer 3rd and 5 to 3rd and 1 like I do. That's bad.

A quick note on trick plays, I like them. Rodgers made a poor decision in throwing the ball on he and Cobb’s double pass attempt, which led to an interception that equated to a punt. It was a play that didn’t work. The upside is that we put it on tape. That means opposing coaches and players are now aware of the fact that we can and will run that play. So the play didn’t work, maybe now a safety doesn’t crash down to tackle Cobb on a bubble screen and allows him to pick up a first down. Maybe a linebacker can’t pursue on the backside because he’s concerned about covering a receiver across the field even after the ball’s been handed off. My point is that just because a trick play didn’t work, doesn’t mean it’s all bad. I love that Mike Mac is willing to show some creativity and take a risk here and there. Believe me when I say that he’s considered all the possible outcomes of each trick play, assessed the risk, and put his team in a position to succeed. Rodgers should not have thrown that pass to that receiver, but other than that, the play worked. 

Tuesday, November 27, 2012

Rolled by the Giants. Again.


So the good news is this, the Packers still control their own destiny on the road to the playoffs. Win out from here and we win the division. The bad news is that we just got our asses kicked by the Giants again. Does this team have our number or what? For a quarterback that hadn't thrown a touchdown pass in three weeks, Eli Manning sure looked like a Superbowl MVP last night. Our piece-meal offensive line couldn't block a god damn thing, McCarthy's play-calling was as bad as it's ever been, and Rodgers was running for his life all night. It was a tough game to watch, so let’s hope we got that out of our system for the year. Gonna be tough to find something I liked this week.

What I Liked:

1. Casey Heyward: The rookie looked good again this week. He almost had a big pick on what was a nice third down break-up anyway. It's a tough match-up to go against the Giants, and even though we gave up a ton of points, Heyward did his part. It almost seems like teams are already avoiding him, and he's just 11 games into his career. It's good.

2. Medical Decisions: It's a reach, but hear me out. Matthews, Woodson, Jennings, Shields and more were held out of the game, even though at least Matthews and Jennings were medically cleared to play. I was happy to see the medical and coaching staffs not continue to make the mistake of rushing guys back from injuries. It's never good to lose a game, but this was one we could afford to lose. There is no reason to bring important players back too early when you're not playing a must-win game. Not playing in this embarrassing excuse for a game gave these guys another week to get healthy, which goes a long way.

3. Randall Cobb: Just cuz I like him.
Stop it Randall you handsome devil. He's probably reading books to orphans with cancer.

What I Didn't Like:

1. Offensive Play-Calling: I hated it. It's easy to be an arm-chair play caller, but McCarthy was awful all night. First off, why would he send a struggling kicker out to attempt a 55+ yarder in the notoriously-tough-to-kick-in Meadowlands when all we needed was four fucking inches for a first down? Was he giving Crosby a chance to get back on track? Does he not trust his offense to gain four inches? And what's with the weird bubble screens on third and long? I understand that play worked for a touchdown a couple weeks ago, but where's the creativity we hear so much about? And you'd think you might give some help to your left tackle who's getting crushed play after play after play. If your quarterback doesn't even have time to set his feet, you have to make adjustments. I understand that you're down by a million, but you gotta keep a defensive line like this honest. We just saw what happens when they get to pin their ears back.

2. Pass Blocking: About those defensive linemen, we barely slowed them down. Newhouse got smoked and Rodgers never got comfortable. It's troubling that the guy that wasn't forced to change positions following the Bulaga injury was the one who struggled the most. Everyone has a bad night, but we were clearly outmatched at the line of scrimmage. If this doesn't get better, we'll have no chance of reaching another Superbowl. Does anyone know if Derrick Sherrod has any chance of returning this year?

3. Ball Security: Rodgers threw another pick and gave up a fumble at a crucial moment in the game. When he fumbled near the end of the first half, it was still a game. Had we gotten six or even three there, we could have carried that momentum into the second half to make a legitimate run at the game. Instead, Rodgers fumbled following a blindside hit courtesy of Marshall Newhouse, and the Giants got a touchdown of their own. I understand that he was under a ton of pressure, and even the most sure-handed quarterbacks fumble every now and then, but Rodgers has to take better care of the ball.

This game was one of the least important games remaining this year. It’s clear that McCarthy and staff treated it as such. We could have gone all out by bringing back key players who have barely been cleared to play, but we kept an eye to the future instead. I know it’s a short season and if we miss the playoffs by one game, this will be the game we look back on. That being said, I like what the staff did in allowing important players another week to get to 100% before they’re thrown back into the fray.

Quick note, whats-his-face on packersnews.com has written two strikingly similar articles to the last two I wrote. I’m not comparing myself to a professional, I’m just saying that I did not plagiarize anything, and everything written on this blog is my original thoughts only.
https://mail.google.com/mail/images/cleardot.gif

Monday, November 19, 2012

True Grit



Winning division games is tough, no matter what. Winning games without key starters is tough, no matter what. Coming from behind on the road is tough, no matter what. So color my team tough.

The Packers overcame the odds to beat a game Detroit squad that hasn’t much cared for us in recent matchups. Missing Clay Matthews, Charles Woodson, Desmond Bishop, Greg Jennings, Bryan Bulaga and more, Green Bay rode the ‘next man up’ to an important come from behind win. Rodgers had another off day, posting a paltry QBR of 35.5, but did just enough to drag his team to within a half game of first place in the NFC north, pending tonight’s battle of the backups in San Fran.

Here’s what I liked and didn’t like:

What I liked:

1.       The Next Man Up: You hear so much talk of the ‘next man up’ philosophy in the NFL today, it becomes almost nauseating, but it’s hackneyed for a reason. With the injury rate as astronomical as it is (owing to the ever-increasing speed and strength of the players), if you can’t win with back-ups, then you’ve got no chance. Depth is as crucial a factor as any. So give Ted Thompson another well-deserved pat on the back for this one. Evan Dietrich-Smith went unnoticed (meaning he did his job as an offensive lineman against a tough front four in Detroit), and TJ Lang was successful in his shift from left guard to right tackle in the absence of Bryan Bulaga. Dezman Moses was impactful in replacing Clay Matthews, recording a sack and a huge forced fumble. Our safeties and corners did just fine in relief of Charles Woodson. It’s shades of 2010, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves.

A little redemption for the Doctor.
2.       Young Defensive Backs: It can hardly get much better than that. Sure we gave up 20 points, but it was against the league’s number one passing offense. Casey Heyward continued to make waves, picking off another pass to bring his season total to five. He was also in tight coverage against Titus Young Sr. in the end zone early on, forcing Detroit to settle for a field goal. This kid sure seems to be the real deal. M.D. Jennings showed great concentration in picking off a tipped pass, and returning it 72 yards for a crucial score. Although Morgan Burnett did give up the big touchdown to Megatron, he was in position to pick it off, and most likely should have. It’s a sign of good things to come in my opinion. Its looks like we may be positioned to field a strong secondary for many years to come.

3.       Randall Cobb: Can you tell I’m excited about this guy? All he does is produce every single week. He’s got six touchdowns in his last four games, including the go-ahead score yesterday. The guy Aaron Rodgers described as ‘Ted Thompson’s best draft pick’ is showing us what all the fuss is about. He is the quintessential spark plug that does seemingly everything right. He’s exactly the kind of guy you want on your team as a fan, player, or coach. If he keeps playing at this high of a level, he’ll be considered among the elite receivers in the league. And he’s twenty-fucking-two years old.

What I didn’t like:

1.       Ball Security: Rodgers did not look himself yesterday in throwing a pick and putting the ball on the ground for what easily could have been another turnover. I understand that everyone has an off day, but those are exactly the kind of mistakes that cost you games, and end your season in the playoffs. I’d have a hard time believing Rodgers graded out positive for yesterday’s game. The only reason we were able to overcome those mistakes was that we generated three turnovers of our own. You can’t count on that kind of defensive production every week, you’ve got to take better care of the ball.

2.       Penalties: Nine penalties for 80 yards. That is unacceptable. The homer in me wants to say that the officiating squad seemed to favor the Lions, but it really doesn’t matter either way. We had more than a couple first downs wiped out by holding penalties. Those mistakes are drive killers that take points off the board. It’s on coach McCarthy to clean up these mistakes as we head down the final stretch of the regular season.

3.       Mason Crosby: Holy shit this is bad. McCarthy made a point of saying that he’s sticking with Crosby, but nobody wants a game to come down to a high pressure kick right now. His confidence is clearly shaken, and even a jovial Greg Jennings couldn’t cheer him up yesterday. He may have saved his career by barely making a 39-yarder to put the Packers up by four late in the game. The problem here is clearly mental, as he is missing kicks to the left and right. If it were a physical hitch, you think he’d have fixed it by now, or would at least be missing in the same spots.

Overall a great win for a banged-up squad that may be getting some stars back next week when they travel to the Meadowlands. While it was one of the uglier wins so far this year, it showed that we can win with our backs against the wall. You are who your record says you are, and right now we’re poised to take control of the division.

A quick note, how sweet was that touchdown to Jermichael Finley? Yea it was good for him to finally get another touchdown, and hopefully he’ll continue to improve, but I’m more referring to the design of the play. McCarthy sent the right guard and tackle out to the flat along with a back to simulate a screen. The wideouts ran clear out routes so there’d be no d-backs in the middle of the field, and the linebackers took the bait hook line and sinker. Finley was left all alone and recorded his first TD since week one. Now we know what Mike McCarthy was doing during the bye week. 

Saturday, November 10, 2012

We Need Clay

The news is less than great. McCarthy told reporters that Clay would be out for 'at least a couple of weeks,' which is not a resounding endorsement for the health of our best defensive player. Hamstring injuries are notoriously tough to overcome, often becoming season long monsters that won't relent until the offseason. Just ask Clay Matthews, who's explosive abilities were severely limited last season due to the very same hamstring he's dealing with now.

Football is wonderful for many reasons, not the least of which being the fact that it is truly the ultimate team sport. No one star can succeed on his own, all eleven players on the field must work in unison, and one player failing to execute his task (no matter what the task) can lead to failure on any given play. That being said, there are individual players that are absolutely crucial to the success of their team. I would argue that the Packers employ two such players, Aaron Rodgers and Clay Matthews. You could argue that other players on the team fit into this category (Charles Woodson, Josh Sitton, Tramon Williams, etc.), but I don't think you can argue against the lynch-pin importance of Aaron and Clay.

Does the team have a chance at succeeding without either of these players? Of course. The possibility of a Superbowl cannot be mathematically eliminated until it is, well, mathematically eliminated. However, reaching the pinnacle of proffessional football would be damn near impossible without the help of these two stars. The importance of Aaron Rodgers is obvious and warrants no discussion, but let's take a look at why I think Clay is nearly as indispensible.

Why was our defense so horrible last year? Well, for many reasons, but the biggest factor was our anemic pass rush. We lost an inside force in Cullen Jenkins, Clay Matthews wasn't himself, and nobody else filled the void. If you cannot rush the passer, even Mark Sanchez can tear your defense apart. No matter how good your secondary is (and I happen to think we have a pretty darn good one), they simply cannot cover forever. Sacking the quarterback is an unquantifiable skill, in other words, just being fast and strong is not enough to be a pass rusher. Furthermore there are two types of pass rushers, inside rushers, and outside rushers (of course there are more ways to break down rushing the quarterback, but these two categories encompass any and all players blitzing on any play), which require different skills, again beyond the obvious physical requirements. You saw what happens last year when you have neither.

An outstanding outside pass rusher is not enough on his own. The quarterback can simply step up in the pocket (since nobody will be in his face) and deliver an accurate ball. A great inside pass rusher is not enough on his own, since the quarterback can roll to one side of the field or another to buy time, and again deliver an accurate throw. Clay Matthews was consistently double and triple teamed last year, as he had already proven himself to be a premier outside pass rusher, and indeed the team's only effective pass rusher. He was effective considering the circumstances (extra blockers, nagging injury, no help), but could not do enough to disrupt opposing offenses.

This year had been a different story. Ted Thompson brought in defensive help at every level, and the Packers were getting pressure from multiple players not named Matthews. At this point in the season, 13 different players have recorded a sack, eight have multiple sacks, and the list includes two defensive backs, three middle linebackers, four outside linebackers, and four defensive linemen. What is the result of such a diverse and effective pass rush? The star pass rusher (Clay Matthews) has been able to record nine sacks on his own, already surpassing his total from last year.

The numbers sure paint a rosy picture of the Packers' pass rush this year, but the problem is this: no other player on the team has more than two sacks. Which means that although we are getting after opposing qb's much better than last year, and sacks are coming from all over the field, there is still no complementary elite pass rusher. Clay is still the heart and soul of our pass rush, and second place is simply not on the same level. Our offense is not clicking like it was last year, the league seems to have figured out our offense (a little bit, I mean, we're still the Green Bay Fucking Packers), and points have been harder to come by. If we lose Matthews for an extended period of time, or he is hobbled like he was last year, we are in serious trouble. As much as I believe in my team, I do not believe that we can win a Superbowl without an effective Clay Matthews. Of all the injuries we've dealt with so far this year, this one is by far the most critical.

At this point it looks like Matthews could be back as early as week 11, when we face the Giants in the Meadowlands. We'll need him for that contest, but we'll need him even more if we make the playoffs. I'm REALLY hoping our coaching and medical staffs do not rush him back into action prematurely (as they did with Jordy Nelson, with unfortunate results), because if he reaggravates the injury and is done for the year, I believe the team will be as well. I'd much rather see us lose two games in November than one game in January because we can't get after the quarterback.

This was kind of a rambling post, but fuck off, it's a bye week.

Thursday, November 1, 2012

Injuries Piling Up...

The list of players being held out of practice contains some marquee names. Greg Jennings, Charles Woodson, Sam Shields, Nick Perry, Jordy Nelson, John Kuhn, Jerel Worthy and Mike Neal were all sitting out of practice today. None of these players are likely to play on Sunday, though one or two may be up. One doesn’t need to look any further than our clunker of a performance at home against the pathetic Jaguars to see that the team is indeed missing these players.

I think all too often we are spoiled by the recent success our team has enjoyed, and tend to think that we can overcome most any injury that comes our way. Randall Cobb has done a fantastic job in relief of Greg Jennings, but the passing game clearly struggled when we lost Jordy Nelson as well. Yes we’ve got great depth at receiver, but losing top level talent is going to make you worse, no matter who your backups are. John Kuhn is an absolute expert in our offense, and although he’s not necessarily a dynamic player, he can be counted on to execute his assignment darn near every play. Arizona has contended this year thanks to a strong defense, and points may very well be hard to come by on Sunday. This will not be a cakewalk for Rodgers and company.

The news gets worse from there, as our defense is missing its unquestioned leader and six total starters (including Desmond Bishop and D.J. Smith who are both on injured reserve). Yes Arizona will be starting John freaking Skelton at quarterback, but he’ll be facing a watered down version of Dom Capers’ defense. Backups will be forced to the forefront this week, and they’ll need to deliver in what I am anticipating will be a low scoring affair.

The bright side of these injuries is that some young players have stepped up and delivered when given the opportunity. The obvious examples here are defensive backs Morgan Burnett and Casey Heyward. These two are flying all over the field, making tackles, breaking up passes, picking off passes, even rushing the passer. I’m reminded of the potential that Nick Collins showed as a youngster that eventually turned into bona fide Pro Bowl talent. Another youngster still flying under the radar is undrafted rookie free agent Dezman Moses. He must be showing the coaches something in practice because he is not only a consistent special teams contributor, but he has also been getting quite a few snaps at outside linebacker. Let’s hope these young guns have another week of plays left in them, because the Cardinals are not the kind of team you want to lose to.

We’ve got the bye week coming on the heels of this week’s matchup, and nobody wants to spend two full weeks thinking about a loss to the struggling Cardinals. I expect the Cards to play with emotion early on, as they’re no doubt pissed off after losing four straight games. It will be extremely important for the offense to break their pattern of slow starts in order to kill that emotion as quickly as possible. The last thing we need is a fired up underdog gaining confidence early on. This week will be a tougher test than most people seem to think, and the schedule only gets tougher from here.

Tuesday, October 23, 2012

Week Seven Review

The Packers' first consecutive wins came at a price this past Sunday, as they stomped the hapless Rams, but lost their defensive leader for at least a month. We'll get to the game in a bit, but losing Charles Woodson to his second broken collarbone in three seasons is a big deal. Charles plays all over the field on defense, acting at times as a safety, corner, even linebacker in the complicated Dom Capers defense. He's not the kind of player you replace. Charles will be missed for not only his physical abilities, but also his emotional presence. The once reserved d-back has embraced a more vocal leadership role since the Superbowl season, and he is more valuable to the club than any casual observer might think. The training staff will no doubt be smart with his recovery, and all indications point to a fully healed shoulder for the stretch run. The news is not all bad in that the schedule over the next four weeks includes two weaker opponents and a bye week, and the young defensive backs have been playing well lately. A silver lining here might be an opportunity for Charles to provide input from the sideline, which could be the first step in transitioning him to a coaching role. I can't think of anyone on the team now that I'd rather see down the road as a coach. Anyway, here's what I liked and didn't like about the lesson we taught the dainty little Rams on Sunday:

What I Liked:

1. Continued Commitment to the Run: I'll be returning to this topic at length shortly, so I won't spend too much time on it now, but the running game was again more effective than the numbers might indicate. 24 rushing attempts demonstrate a clear commitment to the run, despite the fact that Alex Green only gained 35 yards on 20 attempts. This is not great production by any means, I get that. The fact is, attempts are far more important than yards per carry. The Rams had to respect the fact that we might run, particularly on first and second down. Yes they stopped us nearly every time, but it's because they were keeping seven or eight men around the line of scrimmage to do so. If you can't see how that benefits the passing game and the offense overall, then I have no time for you.

2. Aaron Rodgers: The Packers' terrifying aerial assault is back in full force, and it's thanks in no small part to Aaron Rodgers' return to form. He is once again throwing darts all over the field, looks confident in his decisions and accuracy, and seems to be having fun. Perhaps some pressure was lifted from his shoulders when expectations fell following a rocky 3-3 start, but I really don't care WHY he's playing like this, just that he keeps doing it. Let's not forget that his NINE touchdowns over the past two weeks have come against two very good pass defenses, on the road, without an accompanying interception, and without his number one target. Everything appears to be good in Mr. Rodgers' neighborhood.

3. Randall Cobb: Another week, another reason to be excited about the Cobbler. Eight targets, eight catches, 89 yards, and two touchdowns. Any receiver in the league would take that stat line any week. Literally every time he was targeted, he came down with the ball, including a nifty 40 yard TD grab on an admittedly perfectly thrown ball. He also had his customary 20 yard run from an offset shotgun formation. The sky is the limit for Cobb and he's well on his way to earning a full time starting role.

What I Didn't Like:

1. Jermichael Finley: J-Mike looks lost out there right now, and he was a complete non-factor against the Rams. His confidence is clearly shaken, and I'm not sure how he's going to get it back. I don't think it's time just yet to go to another tight end full time, but the reality is that Tom Crabtree has more touchdowns than Finley through week seven. Of course Crabtree will never be our number one pass catching tight end, but we're getting close to the point where we sit Finley down in favor of DJ Williams or even Andrew Quarless when he's back from injury. Part of me has to wonder if his strained relationship with Aaron Rodgers isn't a bigger factor than I initially thought. Is it possible that he isn't getting as many looks because Rodgers doesn't care to throw the ball in the direction of a player who doesn't act or prepare the way he thinks he should?

2. Run Blocking: As I said before, I think a commitment to the running game is more important than production in terms of yardage, but it sure would be nice to pick up some yards on those first down runs. If you can rely on gaining four or five yards and the majority of your runs, it becomes quite a bit easier to achieve the number of carries you'd like in order to set up the passing game. Not to mention the fact that 3rd and short is a hell of a lot better than third and long. When Rodgers is on, he's able to work around unfavorable down and distances (as evidenced by the Packers 9 for 15 efficiency on third down against the Rams), but nobody wants to rely on 3rd and 9 conversions in the playoffs. Certainly Alex Green deserves some of the blame, since Cedric Benson was running behind the same blocking and producing at a higher level, but my opinion is that the lack of yardage production falls mostly on the offensive line. You've heard it a million times, but running the football is a mindset, and it's one we have yet to fully achieve. I'd love nothing more than to see us impose our will on a defense, run the ball 60% of our snaps, and let Rodgers pick his spots. Remember the days of the Packers sweep with Ahman Green? So do I...

3. Collar Bones: Although Casey Heyward has been playing very well of late with four interceptions in the last three games, nobody is going to confuse him with Charles Woodson. Davon House looked very solid until he was beat badly for a touchdown, but I think his performance was at the very least encouraging. I'm not sure when Sam Shields is coming back from his injury, but the time is now for these young corners to show what they can do. Charles will be missed, there's no doubt about that, but better to lose him during the middle of the season than at the end. He's missed a remarkably low total of two games due to injury in six and a half seasons as a Packer, so don't be surprised to see him back sooner rather than later. Aaron Rodgers described him to today as 'maybe the toughest guy I've ever played with,' and said he'd bet on the low side of the 4-8 week recovery period.

Notes:

- The Packers were working out of the shotgun for almost the entire first half. I wonder if that was a strategy to slow down the Rams pass rush and allow Rodgers to survey the field prior to and during each play.

- The no-huddle offense was a non factor Sunday after being featured heavily against the Texans. It seems to me that the reason for the switch is either a reaction to this weeks match-up, or an attempt to remain unpredictable in play calling.

- Peanut Tillman is so underrated it is ridiculous. He is so much fun to watch and shut down Megatron completely last night.

Monday, October 15, 2012

Hey That Was Fun!

Me last week, but picture a little more handsome.

Ok so I'm back after a week of being a little crybaby. You try blogging when you're pissed off. Anyway I apologize to my hundreds of thousands of loyal readers, and I promise I will try harder to write after the next loss. Moving on...

I said two things before this game, 1. I think we're going to lose, 2. I'm almost always wrong. So, if you think about it, I was right. But more importantly the Packers whooped some ass on the road against the hottest team in football. Everyone and their mother were picking the Texans to win this game, but the Pack was having none of it. There was an air of solemnity before the game, but the looks of consternation quickly turned to smiles as the Packers built a 14-0 first quarter lead. For all the time spent complaining as a sports fan, it sure is nice to have a game like this where seemingly every break goes our way. Receivers were hauling in passes they had no business catching, Rodgers was throwing rocks (thanks Mike), the Texans committed penalty after horrible penalty, and the banged up defense played with fiery determination. We got back to having fun on the field and had our way with a very solid team. Welcome back Pack. Here's what I liked and didn't like:

What I Liked:

Not half bad for his first start ever.
       Ball Security: Yes we jumped out to a nice lead and dominated this game from the get go, but all it takes is one turnover to change the complexion of any game. Alex Green protected the ball very well in his first extensive action at running back and Rodgers showcased his trademark impeccable decision making. We were lucky that a dangerous tipped pass from Rodgers fell harmlessly to the turf, but we gotta catch a break every now and then. Cobb was his usual sure-handed self in the return game.

       Run Defense: Charles Woodson said before the game that we needed to start the game with more energy, and we needed to stop the run. The entire defense heard him loud and clear. Missing our run stopping anchor in BJ Raji, the front seven stepped up in a major way to hold the hard running Texans to 90 total yards on the ground, including a paltry 29 yards and a 1.7 yard average for the elite Arian Foster. That is the second lowest single game total for Foster since he burst onto the scene in week one of the 2010 season. We tallied seven tackles behind the line of scrimmage (not counting our three sacks), and AJ Hawk and Jerel Worthy looked particularly active in the box. The secondary deserves credit for generating three turnovers, but that all starts with making the opposing offense one dimensional, which the front seven accomplished nicely.

       Sure-Handedness: Jesus where has this been all year? Sure, Jermichael Finley looked like his usual bone-headed butter-fingered self, but other than him it was like we were playing with a velcro ball. Cobb made catches all over the field (after having one red zone drop), Nelson was unstoppable, and Jones once again had a freaking circus catch. For anyone who recorded the game, go back and watch McCarthy's reaction to JJ's catch. Even the d-backs got in on the action, with Sam Shields looking downright Woodson-esque in his diving undercut of a pick. Rookie Casey Heyward recorded his second and third career interceptions, one of which was a nothing less than awesome tip to himself in the end zone. Interceptions are commonly a 'right place at the right time' kind of play, but this looks like a sign of big things to come for Heyward. Whatever our pass catchers did to have that kind of focus this week should be bottled and sold at Patron level prices. I'd get shitty on it.

      My Boy A-Rodg is a Monster. He's a Best Bro: That's right I liked four things about this game. Big whoop. Rodgers was on. No two ways about it. After missing a wide open James Jones for a would be touchdown on the opening drive, he was on point for the rest of the day. He used his feet to buy time masterfully, ran for a couple first downs, hit damn near ever receiver at his disposal, and oh yeah tied a franchise record for most TD's in a game. Six touchdowns, no picks, two sacks, 9.1 yards per attempt, and a nearly perfect QBR of 95.8. Eat your heart out every other quarterback ever.

What I Didn't Like:

       Injuries: This week could end up hurting pretty bad. Nick Perry, Sam Shields and DJ Smith all went down with injuries that looked potentially serious. It’s pointless to guess about the severity of these injuries before we hear from McCarthy tonight, but losing any of those players would suck. Are they crucial players that can’t be replaced? No. Are they solid contributors that are a step above their replacements in terms of talent? Yep. The defense has been clicking this year and I’d rather not have to play a third stringer at middle linebacker, a rookie in the nickel and dime corner, and Erik Walden at outside linebacker. I’d rather not, but it looks like we may have no choice.

       Jermichael Finley: Believe me, I have been a big Finley supporter from day one. His size and speed combination are a mismatch that simply doesn’t come along very often. He has the ability to take over a game, and has done so in the past. Rodgers continues to give him opportunities, but he is simply not taking advantage this year. There are too many talented receivers on this team to wait around for one option to start producing. Cobb took his opportunity and ran with it. Jones has six TDs in the last three games. Jordy had three touchdowns YESTERDAY. Why should we keep pumping the ball to a guy who just can’t keep it together? He’s starting to talk again which is always bad, he doesn’t get along with Rodgers, he’s dropping balls left and right, and even his agent can’t keep his mouth shut. Finley may be gone after next year, but he’s got time to turn it around.

      Mason Crosby: Ok, this is a carryover from last week, but does anyone trust him with the game on the line? He has not proven that he can be a pressure kicker, despite having a strong leg and accurate career numbers. I won’t be comfortable with him attempting a game winner until he makes a couple, which I cannot ever remember him doing.

Football was fun again this week for the fans and the team. I know it’s a changing league, but I still feel like any good game plan starts with running the ball and stopping the run. Although Green’s numbers don’t fly off the page at you, he was productive enough to establish the run and allow for effective play action. McCarthy deserves credit for committing to the run with a backup halfback and an explosive passing game, and I hope he’ll continue this trend. I doubt there’ll be any Packers questioning the gameplanning this week.

Thursday, October 4, 2012

Who's Ready to Help?

The Packers have a few players set to return in the next week or two that could have a significant impact on the season. James Starks and Davon House appear healthy enough to play for the first time this year, and Mike Neal will be returning from his four game drug suspension. All three of these players have shown tremendous promise in one way or another, but none has truly lived up to the potential that they've shown. I'm hoping we can get some real value from one or all of these guys in the weeks to come, so let's review how they might fit in.

23 carries for 123 yards in this painfully close game...
Starks has played the most significant role of any of the three players we'll discuss. He exploded onto the scene late in 2010, and was an integral part of the Packers' Superbowl run. His consistent and productive play during the playoffs was a huge boost to a team that had struggled to run the ball for years. He split carries with Ryan Grant in 2011, for a total of 578 yards on 133 carries (a solid 4.3 yard average), along with one touchdown and two fumbles. In other words, he was solid but unspectacular when called on to run the ball. His running ability has unfortunately taken a back seat to his propensity to miss blocking assignments, drop passes, or make any other mental error you can think of. He has been a lightning rod for criticism from Aaron Rodgers both on and off the field, which simultaneously speaks to his potential and also his lack of focus. If he didn't have the tools to be great, Rodgers would never call him out in public. He is a one cut and go back that can produce when given a lane, but has not shown an ability to create yards on his own the way Cedric Benson can. His upright style will eventually lead to fumble problems, but his large frame makes him not very fun to tackle. Mike McCarthy said earlier this week that the time is now for Starks to show the coaching staff that he's ready to contribute. If Starks can prove to the coaches that he's healthy enough to make some plays, then I look for him to spell Benson between the twenties for something like five to eight carries a game. If he can't go now, then I wouldn't be surprised if he got cut. The staff and players are high on Alex Green and Brandon Saine, so there's no sense waiting on Starks to work his way back.

He probably got injured on this play
Mike Neal is likely about to embark on his last chance to contribute to the Packers. The 2010 2nd round pick has tallied a total of four tackles and one sack in nine games over two seasons. He was touted during the draft as a workout freak with incredible strength, but has since been busted for PED's. I honestly don't think he derived all (or even most) of his strength from PED's, but I do believe he was taking them in an effort to return sooner from injury. If Neal does not want to go down in Packers lore as Justin Harrell 2.0, then he'd better stay on the field for the rest of the season. Depth along the defensive line is a huge asset, and while I don't expect Neal to develop into a prominent inside pass rusher, he does have all the tools to give our top interior linemen a breather for a series or two. I'd love for him to finally be what he was drafted to be, but I'm skeptical. Unless he can finish the season healthy and have at least moderate production, he'll likely be gone.

I'd like for him to play like the last #31, but to be less of a dick
By far the most enigmatic of these three players, Davon House could contribute in a wide variety of ways. Seemingly having won the starting cornerback job opposite Tramon Williams out of training camp, House was then sidelined with a shoulder injury (a left shoulder subluxation to be precise, which sounds cool but is, in fact, not cool). He'll be forced to wear a harness on that shoulder even after he returns full time, and most Packer fans will remember how badly a shoulder injury limited Tramon Williams in coverage last year. A starting corner needs to be able to not only bump a receiver with power at the line, but also tackle in run support. I for one would like to see House get completely healthy before he returns, but everyone that actually matters seems content to let him play. He was a 'healthy' scratch last week, but I'd be surprised if we don't see him in action soon. My question is, what role will he really be able to play? Sam Shields has been playing with confidence since regaining his starting job following the predictable failure of the Jarrett Bush experiment, and Casey Heyward looks like he belongs at this level in the nickel. Special teams coverage will be tough with a dinged up shoulder, and his range of motion on his injured arm is limited. It's obviously going to be tougher to bat down or intercept balls if you can't move your arm the way you're accustomed to being able to. If it were up to me, I'd shut him down for the year, open up the roster spot, let him heal up for next year, and then give him another chance to earn that starting job. Maybe his shoulder is not as bad as it sounds, and he'll be able to showcase the coverage ability that made him a starter in training camp.

Roster depth was a MAJOR factor in the Packers' Superbowl victory in 2010. You can never have too many capable players at any position, and the healthy return of these three players could provide some excellent fall back plans. It's a long season and we'll no doubt be faced with tough roster decisions due to injury at some point. Maybe none of these guys will play much in the near future, but one or all of them could be forced into starting roles. I suppose it's better that they've had some playing time prior to that, so I understand the desire to get them in the game. Player development is important, but winning comes first.
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Monday, October 1, 2012

Week Four in Review


The Packers got a much needed bounce back win against a tough opponent in Lambeau Sunday afternoon. I know the Saints came in 0-3, didn't have their normal coach/playcaller, haven't been themselves, etc, but that is a tough football team. Drew Brees is still one of the best at QB, and they can put up points in bunches. They came in with their backs up against the wall, and the Packers managed to keep them there. This was a solid win for the Pack and one they should be proud of. Quick side note, is there any more overused sports term than 'must win game?' A game is only 'must win' if you are mathematically eliminated from contention if you lose. Stop it already.

You know what else? This win was exactly what I was talking about when I said we need to play better to overcome bad officiating. Every team faces some type of adversity during every season. It just so happens that early on this year, our adversity came in the form of poor officiating at important times. Last week, we let a bad team hang around, and stay in position to win the game. They got the benefit of a terrible call, and won the game. This week, we did enough to win in spite of two poor calls that would have changed the complexion of the game significantly. The missed push-off in the end zone (yes, again) and the missed fumble on the kick return could have derailed us had we pass blocked like we did last week. Turns out when you play better, protect your quarterback, and put up some points, the refs can't force you to lose even if they try. Here's what I liked and didn't like:

Thumbs Up:

1. Pass Protection: How about limiting the Saints' pass rush to zero sacks and one QB hit? What a tremendous bounce back performance for this maligned offensive line. Coming in Rodgers had been sacked more than any QB in the league, and he needed all the time he got in this one point victory. Had we allowed even one sack, this game easily could have swung the other way. Now I know the Saints' defense is one of the worst in the league, but still, the offensive line won a battle they were supposed to win. Not to get too up in arms about Harrell tripping on his shoe, but is that the guy you want under center this year? No? Then I guess we better continue to protect Rodgers.

Attaway JJ
2. Pass Catching: It's tough to find statistics on drops anywhere, since they're a subjective stat, but I don't recall a single drop from the Packers last night. That includes six targets and five catches for James Jones (including two touchdowns), five targets and four catches for Jermichael Finley, and 41 total pass attempts. For a ridiculously talented receiving core that has been known to struggle with concentration at times, this was a good sign to say the least. Guys were hauling in passes in traffic, over the top, underneath, freaking sideways and off the ground if you're James Jones, it was awesome. Drops seem to come in bunches, so let’s hope sure-handedness is contagious as well.

3. Randall Cobb: It seems every week that the offense is unveiling a new wrinkle for Randall. This week it was a shovel pass good for 17 yards. The guy is flat out exciting to watch and seems impossibly sure of himself for a 22 year old second year player. It's obvious that he wants the ball in his hands at all times and that he's not afraid of the big moment. This guy could develop into a superstar if he continues on the path he's currently on. The only downside to Randall Cobb being so damn good is that it makes the possibility of Greg Jennings leaving in free agency next year even more likely. I'm not saying Randall Cobb is the next Greg Jennings, I'm just saying he's got a chance.

Thumbs Down:

1. Ball Security: I don't care if you're a back-up, starter, practice squadder, whatever, when you're in the game, you have to protect the football. It's kind of funny after winning that the stumbling fumble is how Graham Harrell's first NFL snap went, but it would have been nightmarish had we lost the game. The pick by Rodgers looked to me like an obvious example of impatience and pressing. He wanted to score NOW, and he wasn't waiting around. The corner made a nice play to come up with the ball, but the reality is the receiver was covered. Rodgers should not have thrown that ball and was uncharacteristically impatient and greedy for doing so.

He's even savvy when it comes to throwing punches
2. Charles Woodson: Where'd you go Charles? The guy was invisible for most of the game, save a couple of nice tackles in run support, until he lost his temper and very nearly cost his team 15 yards. That display of anger was out of character for the normally even-keeled Woodson to say the least. He dropped a tough but catchable interception, just the kind of play he's been known for his entire career. There is no bigger fan of Charles Woodson that I know of than myself, but I have to wonder if we're seeing the end of an era this year. He has not been his usual impactful self, and the frustration he's showing could be a byproduct of an inability to physically make the plays that he's mentally able to envision. Believe me I hate, hate, hate to say it, and I really hope I'm wrong, but the end may be near for C-Wood.

3. Communication in the Secondary: This is still very much a work in progress. I know we were playing the high powered Saints offense, but we gave up 446 passing yards, including an 80 yard laugher of a touchdown to rookie Joe Morgan. Sam Shields released coverage on Morgan thinking he had help over the top, which was nowhere to be found. The pass rush was not great, which certainly doesn’t help your coverage unit, but we need stability and consistency in the secondary in a major way. Luckily we were able to pull out a win here, so we can chalk it up as a learning experience, but let’s just make sure we learn from it.