Jennings Next Man Up

                There are in my opinion three contracts set to expire at the end of the 2012 season which the Packers must resign. Of course the team would go on if it were not able to resign these players, but I feel that they are important enough to make getting a deal done priority number one for the front office. These three contracts are those of Greg Jennings, TJ Lang and Sam Shields. I’ll take a look at each situation individually, and we’ll start with the most complicated, expensive and important of the three: Greg Jennings.

                Jennings is a 28 year old legitimate super star. He ranks easily among the top ten players at his position in the league in terms of talent, and is an integral part of the Packers’ offensive success. He has been the most productive receiver on the Packers during his six year career, and we all know that’s not for a lack of competition at the position. Jennings fits the Packers’ model perfectly both on and off the field. He’s a humble individual that has not let success get to his head, and does not figure to be a hard-ass when it comes to contract negotiations. I just don’t see him holding out for a monster deal that would inevitably hurt the franchise. That being said, Jennings is a family man and will no doubt want to be fairly compensated. Let’s take a look at some numbers to see what he might command in terms of value.

                Since entering the league in 2006, Jennings has amassed 6171 receiving yards and 49 touchdowns. For a player to average over 1000 yards and eight touchdowns per season in his first six years in the league is astounding, though not unheard of. The fact is, if he can play six more years at the same pace, he will place himself in the top twenty on the all-time receiving yards list, and the top ten in all-time receiving touchdowns list. He is a legitimate deep threat that has shown a knack for getting behind defenses and getting in the end zone. After establishing himself as a presence, he began to draw consistent double coverage. Hauling in 12 touchdowns in your second year in the league will do that. Contrary to what you might expect, his production showed virtually no signs of slowing despite the increased attention. Though he only scored four touchdowns in 2009, he still managed to gain over 1100 yards, and bounced back to score 21 touchdowns over the next two seasons. Jennings can also be credited with providing more opportunities for Jordy Nelson, Jermichael Finley, etc. in that defenses can only shade coverage to one or two receivers on any given play. Jennings played no small part in Nelson’s breakout 1260 yard, 15 touchdown season in 2011. Certainly this works both ways to some extent (as in other talented receivers drawing extra coverage to open things up for Jennings), but it has to start somewhere, and I believe it starts with Jennings in Green Bay. Add in the fact that he has been remarkably durable (missing a total of eight games due to injury, or 1.33 per season), and it’s clear that Jennings has some value.

                There has been a bit of a ridiculous run on wide receiver contracts over the last two years in the NFL, which is bad news for the Packers. Calvin Johnson signed an outrageous deal recently that will undoubtedly hurt his franchise down the road. The 26 year old Johnson got $60 million guaranteed in an eight year contract. Although Jennings doesn’t match up with Johnson in terms of physical stature or production (or perhaps greed), Johnson’s deal does set the bar extraordinarily high. Larry Fitzgerald’s eight year deal with $49 million guaranteed is also too steep for Jennings, as Fitz’s size and production are simply better.

Vincent Jackson signed a deal this offseason for four years and $26 million guaranteed. At 6’5”, 230 lbs., Jackson has a clear size advantage over Jennings. That advantage, in my opinion, is negated by the off the field baggage Jackson brings with him in the form of previous holdouts, contract disputes, a DUI conviction and so on. He and Jennings are the same age and have played almost exactly the same number of games (88 for Jennings, 92 for Jackson), so the stat comparison is probably as close as we’re going to get to fair. That being said, Jennings has clearly outperformed Jackson. He has nearly 1500 more yards and 12 more touchdowns than Jackson since entering the league, and has maintained an impeccable reputation as a model citizen while he’s been at it. Jennings has produced roughly 32% more than Jackson in terms of yardage and touchdowns, and could logically argue that he deserves to be compensated accordingly. Although this comparison is the height of over-simplification, that would put Jennings at a five or six year deal, with somewhere between $35 and $40 million guaranteed.

Jennings is already the third highest paid player on the team (behind only Aaron Rodgers and Charles Woodson, which is perfectly justifiable), so this type of contract will not represent a huge raise for him. That being said, Jennings has not exactly been underpaid to this point in his career. A contract guaranteeing money in the $35-$40 million range will not cripple the franchise, and I do not expect Jennings to demand more than that. Look for his total cap hit (signing bonus plus salary plus roster/incentive bonuses) to approach $10 million per year.

I’ve obviously taken the position that the Packers fully intend to resign Jennings because that is what I believe they will do. Although there has been very little public discussion of this particular contract situation (a credit to the Packers’ front office, Greg Jennings, and his agent), I don’t think it’s because there isn’t work being done to keep number 85 in Green Bay. Letting players like Scott Wells and Cullen Jenkins depart in free agency is part of Ted Thompson’s master plan to keep the talent he thinks is essential. By mostly ignoring free agency, not overspending on signing bonuses, employing a lot of young (and consequentially cheap) talent and letting players walk when he thinks the price isn’t right, Thompson has given himself the ability to resign a superstar like Jennings. Yes we have other stars with soon to be expired contracts, but Jennings is a must sign.