Thursday, July 12, 2012

Strike While the Iron's Hot

                Next up on my list of ‘must resigns’ for the Packers is young cornerback Sam Shields. Shields originally made the team as an undrafted rookie free agent out of Miami. At the time he had played a total of one season at the cornerback position in his entire life after being moved there from wide receiver during college. He’s a little undersized (5’11”, 184 lbs), even for the smallest position in the NFL, but what he lacks in size he makes up for with tremendous physical ability. He is the fastest player on the team (described by Mike McCarthy as the fastest player he’s ever coached), has excellent hands for a defensive back and can jump out of the gym. His quick comprehension of the responsibilities of an NFL corner was evidenced by the fact that he played in 15 games as a rookie in the nickel and dime packages. He plays with a confidence not normally seen from undrafted free agents playing a position they’re really not familiar with.
                During year one, Shields not only played, but contributed in a major way. In the regular season, although he had only two picks, he simply did not give up many big plays. While I don’t have the time or footage to go back and see if opposing qb’s were challenging him every game, they would have been crazy not to. Dom Capers has been known to lean heavily on his cornerbacks to cover big time receivers man-to-man. Shields was the obvious target to pick on as Tramon Williams (coincidentally another undrafted rookie free agent) had already developed into a Pro Bowl corner, and Charles Woodson literally shits interceptions. Not only did the young corner not give up many big plays, but was also flagged a total of ZERO times during the regular season. Anybody watching the Packers since the days of Mike McKenzie and Al Harris knows that we’re a marked team in terms of flags in the secondary. Whether it’s illegal contact, pass interference, hands to face, whatever, we’re getting flagged for it. For a rookie to play the entire season without drawing a single penalty is just phenomenal.
Why don't you take a seat, right over there...
                After relatively quiet playoff games against the Eagles and the Falcons, Shields exploded onto the national scene in the biggest non-Superbowl game the Packers have ever played. He had two interceptions against the Bears at Soldier Field, the second of which sealed the victory and a Superbowl berth for the Packers. Quick side note on that last pick, Shields attempted to run the interception back for a touchdown, and even fumbled it as he was being tackled, even though all he had to do was take a knee and the game was ours. That was one of the dumbest decisions of the season, and one that might have cost him his job if it had gone down just a little differently. Anyone else remember McCarthy literally on the field, screaming and frantically waving his hands for Shields to get down? That was the only time I remember Shields acting like an undrafted rookie that didn't know how to play defense. Anyway, great game and great pick by Shields, just had to get that off my chest.
                Like the entire Packers defense and secondary, Shields had a down year last year. He could not seem to keep up quite as well in coverage, and struggled mightily with tackling. Poor tackling is a quick way to find the bench, but the Packers simply had nobody to replace him with that could reasonably have been expected to do any better. I fully expect a bounce back year from Shields in 2012, and I believe the 24 year old will benefit greatly from an entire offseason program. He no longer has to worry about making the team or paying the bills, and can focus entirely on fine-tuning his understanding of the position and the defense.
                The market for starting caliber cornerbacks is thin to say the least, and the ones who become available get paid a pretty penny (see Nnamdi Asomugha, DeAngelo Hall, Asante Samuel, etc.). The good news for the Packers is that Shields remains something of an unknown. His skills at the position still need refining and he’s never really been a starter. Yes, he covers the outside receiver when in the nickel, but no team wants Shields covering Calving Johnson or Larry Fitzgerald just yet. His surprisingly good play as a rookie could have been a fluke. Then again, his surprisingly bad play as a sophomore could just as easily have been a fluke as well. I tend to think that Shields is capable of returning to his solid nickel back play from 2010, and has a chance to develop into the starting corner opposite Tramon Williams when the time comes.
                The uncertainty surrounding Shields works in the Packers’ favor, and they’d be wise to get a deal done sooner rather than later. If Shields has a fantastic season in 2012, and the Packers wait until the offseason to sign him, he’ll command a hefty salary and bonus. Who wouldn’t want to sign a 25 year old proven corner with tremendous athletic ability and plenty of post season experience (and success)? Look for the Packers to lock him up around or before the mid-point of the regular season. I’m hoping for something in the range of a four year contract, but that depends heavily on how he performs early on this year. The only way I see the Packers letting him walk is if he has an absolutely horrible year. If he simply holds his own at the nickel corner position early on this season, the Packers have every reason to sign him to a long term deal.
Isn't this Underwood guy a rapist or 
something?
                It’s interesting that with all the success Ted Thompson has had in the draft with the Packers, he has never drafted a cornerback that has lived up to expectations. Mike Hawkins, Will Blackmon, Pat Lee, Brandon Underwood, any of those names strike you as shut down corners? Now, he’s had great success acquiring corners in the free agent market, but you can’t go to that well too many times. There are dozens of corners ripe for the picking each year in the draft, but you can never depend on free agent availability.
                It’s for these reasons, and the fact that Charles Woodson isn’t getting any younger, that I think Sam Shields is the most urgent pending free agent for the Packers to resign. Certainly Greg Jennings and possibly TJ Lang are more important, but the Shields deal should get done first. Ask Minnesota what they’d be willing to pay for a productive young corner, then ask yourself if you really want to get into that bidding war.

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