Thursday, June 28, 2012

A Fun Debate that Few Get to Enjoy

                So Aaron Rodgers was predictably voted the best player in the league by his peers. You didn’t need to be Nostradamus to see this one coming. Rodgers put up one of the, if not the best statistical seasons in the history of the quarterback position on his way to earning his first MVP award. I guess the players weren’t buying into ESPN’s ‘if Matt Flynn can do it in this offense, anyone can’ line of thinking.
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The accolades got me thinking about how spoiled we have become as Packers fans at the quarterback position. Since the 1993 season, we’ve had a total of three players start at the quarterback position, and Matt Flynn started a total of two games in relief of Aaron Rodgers. Put their tremendous play aside, that figure is ridiculous. To put it in perspective, over the same time period, the Detroit Lions have had 21 different players start at quarterback, and the Chicago Bears have started a total of 24 at the position.
This unprecedented consistency at the most important position in the game is thanks to both the durability of starters Aaron Rodgers and Brett Favre, and their consistently solid play. So that got me thinking even further about the comparison of these two players. Full disclosure before we get into it, although I’m not necessarily a Brett Favre hater, I’m certainly no Brett Favre apologist. Now let’s compare the first four years as a starter for each player:
Player
Total Yds
ATT
CMP
TDs
Ints
QB Rating
RSH YDS
RSH TDs
YPC
Favre
14825
2145
1342
108
64
86.9
797
7
4.3
Rodgers
17037
2054
1346
131
37
105.2
1136
16
4.8

It doesn’t take a genius to see that Rodgers has been the FAR superior player in his first four years under center. His numbers are better in literally every single category, and those years include both a Superbowl victory and an MVP award. Now I hear you. This ain’t quite apples to apples. Rodgers had three years of seasoning on the team before starting, compared to just one for Favre. So let’s try to get a little closer to a fair comparison. How about we compare years four through seven for each player:
Player
Total Yds
ATT
CMP
TDs
Ints
QB Rating
RSH YDS
RSH TDs
YPC
Favre
16061
2208
1351
145
56
94.7
706
8
4.2
Rodgers
17037
2054
1346
131
37
105.2
1136
16
4.8

Here again, although the numbers are marginally more even, Rodgers was clearly the better player. Favre overtook Rodgers in the completions and touchdowns categories, but needed 150 more attempts to achieve that. Rodgers was far more efficient, as evidenced by his passer rating that exceeds Favre’s by over 10 points. It’s worth noting that Rodgers' AVERAGE passer rating through his first four years as a starter is over 100, a feat that Favre failed to accomplish in even a single season until his 19th year in the league. Furthermore, Rodgers has clearly been more of a threat on the ground, tallying fully twice as many rushing TDs as Favre, gaining 430 more yards and averaging more yards per carry.
                Alright, alright, I hear you again. ‘Rodgers had more talent around him…The league has changed so much…Rules favor offenses now…You can’t even hit quarterbacks anymore…’ I get it. There may be some validity to some of those points, so here’s what I’m gonna do. I’m going to compare Aaron Rodgers first four seasons as a starter with the best four season of Brett Favre’s illustrious 20 year career. The years I’ve chosen to use include two of Favre’s three MVP campaigns (1995 and 1996), his final and arguably most efficient year as a Packer (2007), and his first season as a Viking (2009), which was far and away his best statistical season. Let’s take a look at the same table used in the two previous comparisons:
Player
Total Yds
ATT
CMP
TDs
Ints
QB Rating
RSH YDS
RSH TDs
YPC
Favre
16669
2179
1403
138
48
99.6
336
5
2.7
Rodgers
17037
2054
1346
131
37
105.2
1136
16
4.8

The data here speaks for itself. Again Rodgers trails in only passing completions and passing touchdowns, but those columns are mitigated by his higher completion percentage, higher passer rating, and more total touchdowns. Obviously I picked Favre’s four best seasons according to my own opinion, but you’re more than welcome to suggest four of your own, and I’ll draw up the same comparison. Not only were these the years that Favre was most efficient and productive as a passer, but the 2007 and 2009 seasons provide a more accurate comparison to Rodgers’ years, as they took place under the same league conditions. Favre's surrounding cast in 2007 was obviously nearly identical to that which Rodgers played with early on, further eliminating potentially disruptive variables.
                I didn’t write up this comparison to bash Brett Favre. My hurt feelings after he left town (and especially after he went to the Vikings) have been more than assuaged by the masterful play of Aaron Rodgers and the resulting Superbowl championship. Favre was more influential in fostering my love of football than any other player, and I’m truly grateful for that. I grew up watching him run around like a maniac on the field, and his love for his teammates and the game could not have been any more obvious. His iron man streak was absolutely ridiculous, and is a record that I honestly believe will never be broken. Favre’s a sure fire first ballot Hall-of-Famer, and Rodgers has a LONG way to go before a comparison of total career numbers would even be worth looking at.
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Having said all of that, I believe that Rodgers is the better player. Although his career is only half over at this point, he’s shown that he has all the tools to be literally the best quarterback to ever play the game. Not only has he put up better numbers since the second he was given a chance to start, he has also shown more of a willingness to adhere to a system, take his coaches’ input to heart and strive for perfection. He also abruptly shut up all the critics who questioned his toughness by missing a total of one game due to injury in the last four seasons. About the only thing I don’t like about Rodgers is that he’s too smart to play the game for as long as I’d selfishly like him to.
I love Favre for everything he did for my team and my own personal love for the game of football. I still get chills every time I see a clip of his OT pass to Jennings in Denver or his virtuoso performance in Oakland the day after he lost his father. Even though I booed him until my throat was sore (from the nosebleeds) when he made his first trip to Lambeau as a visitor, time heals all wounds, and I’ll cheer him when he finally returns to retire the now-hallowed number four. In the mean time I’ll just sit back and enjoy the play of the new maestro in Green Bay. Reality is I probably won’t fully appreciate what we’ve had until Rodgers is gone and we’ve got some poor schmuck under center that has to follow in his footsteps.

1 comment:

  1. Couldnt agree with you more Steve. I think if you were a kid growing up in wisconsin during the early 90's you grew up looking up to favre as your big brother. Who can forget the look on his face as he scored the first touchdown in the 96 superbowl, helmet off, held high and that impossibly big goofy smile ...Thats why I think we were all butthurt when the whole Thompson/Farve debaucle went down. He was family. Every sunday and some mondays we would gather to watch our beloved favre,reggie,gilbert,bennett,howard,levens even the original roethlisberger, mark chmura, take on our rivals. we cheered them through the good and the bad. .But those glory days are over, with even better days ahead.. now that we're grown we've been blessed with the second coming. Weve been given the best quarterback a packer fan can ask for. The stats speak for themselves.

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