Training Camp: Week One

If that's not lovable, I don't know what its.

                The dog days of summer are upon us, and nobody is feeling the heat more than NFL football players. The annual meat-grinder known as training camp is underway, and players have said goodbye to comfort of any kind. Nobody looks forward to training camp, but it’s as crucial a part of any NFL season as any phase of the year. It’s a time when vets are whipped back into shape, pretenders are weeded out, rosters are formed, schemes are installed and lifelong goals are realized or shattered. I’m just happy to be sitting in a dimly lit, air conditioned room. Here’s a few tid-bits of what I’ve gleaned about camp thus far:


- Charlie Peprah was cut just before the start of camp, ostensibly for medical reasons. This can only be seen as bad news, as the move eliminates the Packers’ only veteran fallback option at the second safety position. Although I’m sure most fans and those within the organization were hoping that one of the young bucks would unseat Peprah as the starter, this removes a good chunk of the already waning stability at the safety position group. Plus, it will no doubt start another round of boring, misplaced ‘Charles Woodson to safety’ speculation.

- Derek Sherrod and Desmond Bishop have been sidelined with injuries thus far in camp. Sherrod suffered a gruesome broken leg towards the end of the season last year, and was not expected to be ready for camp. His absence further solidifies Marshall Newhouse’s current claim to the starting left tackle gig. Bishop’s time on the sideline is a bit more of a concern. He re-aggravated a pulled calf muscle from last year and is unsure of the timeline for his return. While Bishop himself has been optimistic about a sooner than later return (and explicitly stated his availability for the Sept. 9^th opener), players are almost always more optimistic than the medical staff. As with all injuries, time will tell the severity, but Bishop is not the kind of player you want to lose for an extended period of time.


- Greg Jennings had some less than encouraging (in my opinion) things to say about his impending free agency. He stated emphatically that he’d like to return to the Packers, but also said that he’s ‘not naïve’ and that he knows there are 31 other teams that would love his services. He was quick to point out the massive contracts signed by several wide receivers this offseason and made it clear that the Packers and his agent are currently in talks to extend his existing contract. Jennings promised not to be a distraction during the season (which I believe wholeheartedly), but did say that if something doesn’t get done before the start of the season, that it would have to wait until next offseason. He finished by pointing out the fact that Clay Matthews and Aaron Rodgers were both in line for new contracts and that the team might not be able to keep all of them. Yikes.


- Adrian Peterson has been placed on the Physically Unable to Perform list to start the offseason. Set aside the fact that that makes it sound like he’s impotent, because this is a big deal for the Vikings. One of maybe three or four decent players on their team (and by far the best player) could be sidelined to start the year and may never be 100% this year. This doesn’t really affect the Packers since the Vikings were going to suck anyway, but I just thought I’d include it because fuck the Vikings and fuck Adrian Peterson.

TJ Lang Needs a New Deal

Look at this big dumb galoot, don't you want him back? I know I do.

                Last and probably least on our list of must-sign pending free agents is left guard TJ Lang. Lang will most certainly play an important role this year as the firmly entrenched started between a brand new center and relatively inexperienced left tackle. He will be tasked with maintaining stability on a left side of the line in flux, and will need to build off of his solid year last year as a starter to do so. As a first year starter in 2011, Lang drew praise from the coaching staff and was not exposed as a wannabe. He showed he can start in the league and was an important part of one of the most prolific offenses ever. At 24 years old, he’s got a potentially long future ahead of him and decent experience to boot. Add his good size to the equation and you’ve got yourself a nice starter at left guard.

                Drafted in the fourth round of the 2009 draft, Lang was most likely tabbed as a potential future starter from the get go. He paid his dues behind the underwhelming Daryn Colledge for two seasons before the Packers gave him his chance to start. Although Lang had by all accounts a good first season as a starter, he’d be wise not to get too comfortable. Ted Thompson has shown a willingness to part ways with former starters along the offensive line since he came to Green Bay. The pattern began in his first year as GM, when he released veteran guards Marco Rivera and Mike Wahle. The trend continued when he allowed guards Jason Spitz and Colledge to walk last year, and declined to even attempt to resign Scott Wells this offseason.

                As I’ve stated before, I’m not necessarily in a position to analyze the play of offensive linemen. Like most football fans, my attention is usually drawn to the ball, and I only notice linemen when they’re beat for a sack or called for holding. That being said, I’m a firm believer that the most important factor in the play of an offensive line as a unit is time spent playing together. The more familiar you are with you linemates’ habits, the more comfortable you are with your own responsibilities, which will lead to playing with more confidence. An offensive line must be a cohesive unit, and shuffling players in and out undermines that ongoing process. In other words, if TJ Lang isn’t confident that Marshall Newhouse knows that he’s responsible for the outside rusher, then how can TJ feel confident that blocking his man will do anything to protect the passer and ensure a positive play?

                It wasn’t long ago that the Packers were mired in a funk of poor pass protection, and its effects were felt throughout the franchise. Rodgers, though he has shown quite a bit of toughness, is simply not going to be able to absorb hits like Brett Favre. Honestly, part of the reason is that he’s too smart to run out onto the field against doctors, trainers and coaches orders following a concussion. The protection has improved significantly with the arrival of Lang and Sitton and Bulaga, and we’ve got a 15-1 season and a world championship to show for it. Do not take for granted what the big men up front do, and do not forget that they are easily the most important position group behind quarterback.

                I don’t think TJ Lang is the greatest thing since sliced bread. I know he doesn’t have incredibly size or strength. I know he’s not even the best guard on our team. I also know that he’s shown that he’s a capable starter, he’s only 24 years old, and he’d be inexpensive to resign even if he has another good season this year. Again, stability on the line is paramount, and Lang is the only one providing that on the left side going into this season. The more these young guys play together, the better they’ll become and the more time Rodgers has to dissect a defense. That sounds nice doesn’t it? Offensive linemen become incredibly expensive after they’ve established themselves as Pro Bowlers. Lang won’t be the cheapest guard out there after this year, but he’ll be affordable. While I don’t think there’s any urgency to sign him now or even during the season, I do think Thompson would be wise to bring him back on a long term deal after this season. Of course that’s all dependent on the price, but Lang doesn’t seem like the type of guy to demand huge money or think he’s more talented than he is.

Who Will it be at OLB?

                By my count, there are five positions up for grabs on the defense this year, each with varying levels of competition. Those spots include the left outside linebacker position, both safety positions and two spots on the defensive line. Although there are two firmly entrenched starters on the d line (BJ Raji and Ryan Pickett), which typically features only three players, Ryan Pickett is virtually useless in passing situations. Beyond that, the defensive line is rotated far more heavily than any other position group, so I consider the passing down/substitution snaps given to the fourth lineman to be a starting spot. Ideally all five of these positions will have a clear starter by the end of the preseason, but that is far from a guarantee. The Packers were never able to lock down a starter at a couple defensive line positions and outside linebacker last year, and I believe it cost them dearly. So let’s take a look at the outside linebacker group first to see how things might shake out.

                Clay Matthews has been looking for a running mate since he came to town. He’s a great pass rusher to be sure, but even he can’t consistently outfox or outmuscle a triple team. A consistent pass rusher at the other outside linebacker position would go a long way in opening things up for the dynamic Matthews. Last year the Packers tried Frank Zombo, Brad Jones and Erik Walden at the position with below average results at best. None of those three players was able to develop into a consistent edge rushing threat despite having all shown flashes of ability in the past.

The players currently listed on the roster at outside linebacker include veterans Vic So’Oto, Matthews, Zombo and Walden (Jones remains on the roster for now but has been moved to inside linebacker), as well as newcomers Nick Perry, Terrell Manning and Dezman Moses. That may seem like a long list, but is actually not a lot of bodies to fill two important positions. Certainly at least two of those players will be cut before the season starts, and the list of those on the bubble is fairly easy to ascertain. Matthews is an obvious lock, and Perry was drafted too high to jettison just yet, even if he plays poorly throughout the offseason. That leaves So’Oto, Zombo, Walden, Manning and Moses fighting for what will likely be three roster spots.

Manning was drafted in the fifth round this year, and is young enough and cheap enough to be kept around for potential rather than immediate production. I don’t see him getting the ax. Moses has apparently been tearing it up in OTAs and training camp, but will need to continue this pace to make the squad. That being said, my money is on him to make the team. So that then leaves So’Oto, Zombo and Walden fighting for the last spot. These guys are all known quantities, in that the Packers’ staff has seen them play quite a bit. That’s a plus and a minus because they’ve proven they belong on the field in the NFL, but they’re a little bit older, have less of an upside, and would be a little more expensive than the rookies. Walden has probably shown the most explosiveness, but has severe limitations in coverage. Zombo is likely the most consistent of the three, having been described by Mike McCarthy as the only player ever to score a perfect game according to his grading system (which gives every player on the field either a plus or a minus for each play). So’Oto, while being a good story, never really saw the field on defense last year, and has probably the most work to do to make the team. So with the Packers hoping for some explosiveness from the new crop of OLB’s, I’d expect them to value consistency more than anything from a veteran backup. Zombo seems to be the most logical choice to make the squad and back up whichever of the three rookies ends up starting.

As far as who I think the starter will be, there’s really not enough information yet to make an definitive statement. I’d love to see Perry show enough mobility and coverage ability to be on the field as the starter week one, but there’s no telling how he’ll handle the transition from three point stance in college to two point stance in the pros. Moses has been a nice surprise so far in camp, but nobody knows how he’ll perform with the pads and the lights on. I don’t know much about Manning, but he’s the smallest of the five outside backers I see making the team, and he has no experience. Zombo has shown consistency and modest production, but he’s far from the dynamic outside rusher the team is looking for. If I had to guess now, I’d say Perry will get the nod strictly because of his athletic ability, but he’s got to show some productivity in training camp and the preseason for that to happen. Safe to say we’ll be better off at this position than last year, when we were relying on three ho-hum vets to complement one of the best outside rushers in the league.

Will Somebody Tell Me What Dezman Moses is Doing?

                It seems that one player has been the talk of the offseason in Green Bay. The guy making waves in OTAs is undrafted rookie linebacker Dezman Moses. The Packers are a team that will truly keep the most productive 53 players on the regular season roster, regardless of their background. With all the talk surrounding the 23 year old Moses, don’t be surprised to see him follow in the footsteps of Atari Bigby, Tramon Williams, Sam Shields and others to make the roster as an undrafted free agent.

He looks sorta strong I guess.

                Moses hails from Tulane University in New Orleans, where he transferred after two years at the University of Iowa. He had a fairly productive career at Tulane, finishing in the top five in sacks in school history despite playing just two seasons there. He has good size at 6’2”, 259 lbs, and certainly fits a current need for the Packers. Everyone knows the Packers’ pass rush was awful last year and the team went to great lengths to address that need during the offseason. Moses has been given a chance to make a difference at the outside linebacker position, and it seems he has made the most of that opportunity.

                To draw public praise from a proven veteran on the defense is a great accomplishment for an undrafted rookie during OTAs. Moses did just that in getting the attention of fellow linebacker Desmond Bishop, who described him as good at, ‘run stopping, rushing the passer, getting his calls in. Everything. He’s smart. He’s a good player.’ That’s great news for the young linebacker, but it doesn’t stop there. Tramon Williams, who took a similar path to the NFL, said that, ‘we talk about him every day, pretty much. He’s got a lot of strength and pass rushing ability, let’s just say that.’ Talk about him every day? I mean what exactly is this guy doing in shorts and a helmet to garner this much attention from the vets? Clay Matthews went the furthest of everyone in saying that, ‘I think he’s shown the coaches as well as myself everything he needs to at the outside linebacker position.’ That honestly sounds like crazy talk to me. How could Clay Matthews have decided that Moses has earned a roster spot before he’s even seen him with pads on? Seriously, what is this guy doing at practice?

                It’s becoming a familiar refrain in the Packers offseason for a relatively unknown player to be making some noise. Many of these players go on to have early success in the regular season, and more than one has developed into a Pro Bowl caliber player. Is Dezman Moses the next guy to explode onto the scene from out of nowhere? The Packers’ linebackers certainly seem to think so, and who would know better than them? For every first-round glamour boy that fails to live up to lofty expectations, there are a dozen late-round (or in this case, no round) workhorses just begging for an opportunity. Nobody is going to hand anything to Dezman Moses for free, he’s going to have to work for every practice rep, every go around with the first stringers, every paycheck and bit of praise he gets. He’ll no doubt be raw, probably can’t catch a cold, and probably isn’t very fast, but if he’s foaming at the mouth to get after the passer, why not turn him loose for a week or two?

                Moses will no doubt be featured prominently in the preseason as a player the coaches really want to get a look at. If he can make some plays, he’ll make the team. I remember a certain Desmond Bishop laying the wood a few times in the preseason to make the team as a special teamer. He had to work for his roster spot, then he had to work to become the starter at inside linebacker. Last I checked he’s developed into a nice little player in the middle of our defense. I’d recommend Moses takes a page out of Clay Matthews’ book, and flies around like a fucking maniac during the preseason. Throw caution to the wind and get after the quarterback. He might just be the shot in the arm this defense needs to return to prominence.

Strike While the Iron's Hot

                Next up on my list of ‘must resigns’ for the Packers is young cornerback Sam Shields. Shields originally made the team as an undrafted rookie free agent out of Miami. At the time he had played a total of one season at the cornerback position in his entire life after being moved there from wide receiver during college. He’s a little undersized (5’11”, 184 lbs), even for the smallest position in the NFL, but what he lacks in size he makes up for with tremendous physical ability. He is the fastest player on the team (described by Mike McCarthy as the fastest player he’s ever coached), has excellent hands for a defensive back and can jump out of the gym. His quick comprehension of the responsibilities of an NFL corner was evidenced by the fact that he played in 15 games as a rookie in the nickel and dime packages. He plays with a confidence not normally seen from undrafted free agents playing a position they’re really not familiar with.

                During year one, Shields not only played, but contributed in a major way. In the regular season, although he had only two picks, he simply did not give up many big plays. While I don’t have the time or footage to go back and see if opposing qb’s were challenging him every game, they would have been crazy not to. Dom Capers has been known to lean heavily on his cornerbacks to cover big time receivers man-to-man. Shields was the obvious target to pick on as Tramon Williams (coincidentally another undrafted rookie free agent) had already developed into a Pro Bowl corner, and Charles Woodson literally shits interceptions. Not only did the young corner not give up many big plays, but was also flagged a total of ZERO times during the regular season. Anybody watching the Packers since the days of Mike McKenzie and Al Harris knows that we’re a marked team in terms of flags in the secondary. Whether it’s illegal contact, pass interference, hands to face, whatever, we’re getting flagged for it. For a rookie to play the entire season without drawing a single penalty is just phenomenal.

Why don't you take a seat, right over there...

                After relatively quiet playoff games against the Eagles and the Falcons, Shields exploded onto the national scene in the biggest non-Superbowl game the Packers have ever played. He had two interceptions against the Bears at Soldier Field, the second of which sealed the victory and a Superbowl berth for the Packers. Quick side note on that last pick, Shields attempted to run the interception back for a touchdown, and even fumbled it as he was being tackled, even though all he had to do was take a knee and the game was ours. That was one of the dumbest decisions of the season, and one that might have cost him his job if it had gone down just a little differently. Anyone else remember McCarthy literally on the field, screaming and frantically waving his hands for Shields to get down? That was the only time I remember Shields acting like an undrafted rookie that didn't know how to play defense. Anyway, great game and great pick by Shields, just had to get that off my chest.

                Like the entire Packers defense and secondary, Shields had a down year last year. He could not seem to keep up quite as well in coverage, and struggled mightily with tackling. Poor tackling is a quick way to find the bench, but the Packers simply had nobody to replace him with that could reasonably have been expected to do any better. I fully expect a bounce back year from Shields in 2012, and I believe the 24 year old will benefit greatly from an entire offseason program. He no longer has to worry about making the team or paying the bills, and can focus entirely on fine-tuning his understanding of the position and the defense.

                The market for starting caliber cornerbacks is thin to say the least, and the ones who become available get paid a pretty penny (see Nnamdi Asomugha, DeAngelo Hall, Asante Samuel, etc.). The good news for the Packers is that Shields remains something of an unknown. His skills at the position still need refining and he’s never really been a starter. Yes, he covers the outside receiver when in the nickel, but no team wants Shields covering Calving Johnson or Larry Fitzgerald just yet. His surprisingly good play as a rookie could have been a fluke. Then again, his surprisingly bad play as a sophomore could just as easily have been a fluke as well. I tend to think that Shields is capable of returning to his solid nickel back play from 2010, and has a chance to develop into the starting corner opposite Tramon Williams when the time comes.

                The uncertainty surrounding Shields works in the Packers’ favor, and they’d be wise to get a deal done sooner rather than later. If Shields has a fantastic season in 2012, and the Packers wait until the offseason to sign him, he’ll command a hefty salary and bonus. Who wouldn’t want to sign a 25 year old proven corner with tremendous athletic ability and plenty of post season experience (and success)? Look for the Packers to lock him up around or before the mid-point of the regular season. I’m hoping for something in the range of a four year contract, but that depends heavily on how he performs early on this year. The only way I see the Packers letting him walk is if he has an absolutely horrible year. If he simply holds his own at the nickel corner position early on this season, the Packers have every reason to sign him to a long term deal.

Isn't this Underwood guy a rapist or 

something?

                It’s interesting that with all the success Ted Thompson has had in the draft with the Packers, he has never drafted a cornerback that has lived up to expectations. Mike Hawkins, Will Blackmon, Pat Lee, Brandon Underwood, any of those names strike you as shut down corners? Now, he’s had great success acquiring corners in the free agent market, but you can’t go to that well too many times. There are dozens of corners ripe for the picking each year in the draft, but you can never depend on free agent availability.

                It’s for these reasons, and the fact that Charles Woodson isn’t getting any younger, that I think Sam Shields is the most urgent pending free agent for the Packers to resign. Certainly Greg Jennings and possibly TJ Lang are more important, but the Shields deal should get done first. Ask Minnesota what they’d be willing to pay for a productive young corner, then ask yourself if you really want to get into that bidding war.

Let the Good Times Roll

                The Packers have reported a profit of $42.7 million for the fiscal year ending March 31^st, 2012. The number smashes the previous record profit of $25.4 million (set in 2004-2005), and does not include the net $64 million generated from the most recent stock sale. For the NFL’s smallest market team, this feat is nothing short of amazing. While profits were no doubt goosed by increased merchandise sales following the team’s Superbowl XLV, team President and CEO Mark Murphy deserves a ton of credit. Approximately 100,000 people call the city of Green Bay home, but the fan base is so deeply committed to its team that the Packers can compete (and indeed outperform) the likes of Dallas, New York City, San Francisco, etc. both on the field and on the books. Call this news a MAJOR win for the long term viability of our beloved franchise.

                Excitement following the team’s Superbowl win, the momentum generated during the regular season winning streak and decreased expenses all led to the Packers’ massive profit. Again, the $64 million generated from the stock sale (with the intent to partially fund the south end zone expansion) is not included in this net figure, which paints an even rosier picture. Much of the expansion dollars are being used to build additional box seats, which are truly the difference between the haves and have nots in the NFL. Ticket revenue is shared between the home and visiting team as a part of the NFL’s revenue sharing agreements. Revenue from box seats and ticket license fees (essentially payments for the right to own season tickets), however, is not shared. This means that teams with large box seat capacities and healthy demand for season tickets have a tremendous opportunity to outperform other franchises financially. Considering the 70 some odd thousand person waiting list for season tickets and the new box seats in addition to the existing spots, I’d say the Packers are well positioned to take advantage of this revenue disparity. It’s clear that Mark Murphy is not only generating huge amounts of revenue for the franchise, but is indeed spending it in ways that will solidify the Packers’ long term sustainability as a franchise.

Packers stock has consistently outperformed the Dow Industrials

                A ‘Franchise Preservation Fund’ (formerly known as the ‘corporate reserve fund’) has ballooned from $58 million in 2003 to $127.5 million today. The Packers, apparently feeling quite comfortable with that buffer, have decided against adding to that fund with the team’s record profits. One has to wonder what type of accounts/securities those funds are held in, but that’s a boring discussion for another day. The fact is, with the Packers in such a strong position financially, we are positioned as a team to use every penny of salary cap space we are afforded by the collective bargaining agreement, can pay top dollar for coaching, training and office staff, can fund lucrative expansions and improvements, and most importantly ensure that our grandkids will be able to enjoy watching the Packers play on Sundays. Ongoing real estate investments surrounding the stadium will continue to present new opportunities for the Packers to expand their facilities and increase revenue. Indeed there seems to be no end to the good news for the Packers.

                Prior to this news, I would have had a hard time deciding whether Mike McCarthy or Ted Thompson had done more for the Packers’ organization in their time here. I now have to add Mark Murphy to this list. His long term focus coupled with a willingness to be aggressive now make his relatively low-profile 2007 hiring a pivotal decision for the Packers. What he lacks in charisma (have you seen this guy on camera?) he more than makes up for in business acumen and thoughtful determination. I literally cannot imagine a better situation for my team than Mark Murphy employing Ted Thompson employing Mike McCarthy employing Aaron Rodgers. Seriously, we are in a golden age of Packer football, so let’s all just enjoy this.

Jennings Next Man Up

                There are in my opinion three contracts set to expire at the end of the 2012 season which the Packers must resign. Of course the team would go on if it were not able to resign these players, but I feel that they are important enough to make getting a deal done priority number one for the front office. These three contracts are those of Greg Jennings, TJ Lang and Sam Shields. I’ll take a look at each situation individually, and we’ll start with the most complicated, expensive and important of the three: Greg Jennings.

                Jennings is a 28 year old legitimate super star. He ranks easily among the top ten players at his position in the league in terms of talent, and is an integral part of the Packers’ offensive success. He has been the most productive receiver on the Packers during his six year career, and we all know that’s not for a lack of competition at the position. Jennings fits the Packers’ model perfectly both on and off the field. He’s a humble individual that has not let success get to his head, and does not figure to be a hard-ass when it comes to contract negotiations. I just don’t see him holding out for a monster deal that would inevitably hurt the franchise. That being said, Jennings is a family man and will no doubt want to be fairly compensated. Let’s take a look at some numbers to see what he might command in terms of value.

                Since entering the league in 2006, Jennings has amassed 6171 receiving yards and 49 touchdowns. For a player to average over 1000 yards and eight touchdowns per season in his first six years in the league is astounding, though not unheard of. The fact is, if he can play six more years at the same pace, he will place himself in the top twenty on the all-time receiving yards list, and the top ten in all-time receiving touchdowns list. He is a legitimate deep threat that has shown a knack for getting behind defenses and getting in the end zone. After establishing himself as a presence, he began to draw consistent double coverage. Hauling in 12 touchdowns in your second year in the league will do that. Contrary to what you might expect, his production showed virtually no signs of slowing despite the increased attention. Though he only scored four touchdowns in 2009, he still managed to gain over 1100 yards, and bounced back to score 21 touchdowns over the next two seasons. Jennings can also be credited with providing more opportunities for Jordy Nelson, Jermichael Finley, etc. in that defenses can only shade coverage to one or two receivers on any given play. Jennings played no small part in Nelson’s breakout 1260 yard, 15 touchdown season in 2011. Certainly this works both ways to some extent (as in other talented receivers drawing extra coverage to open things up for Jennings), but it has to start somewhere, and I believe it starts with Jennings in Green Bay. Add in the fact that he has been remarkably durable (missing a total of eight games due to injury, or 1.33 per season), and it’s clear that Jennings has some value.

                There has been a bit of a ridiculous run on wide receiver contracts over the last two years in the NFL, which is bad news for the Packers. Calvin Johnson signed an outrageous deal recently that will undoubtedly hurt his franchise down the road. The 26 year old Johnson got $60 million guaranteed in an eight year contract. Although Jennings doesn’t match up with Johnson in terms of physical stature or production (or perhaps greed), Johnson’s deal does set the bar extraordinarily high. Larry Fitzgerald’s eight year deal with $49 million guaranteed is also too steep for Jennings, as Fitz’s size and production are simply better.

Vincent Jackson signed a deal this offseason for four years and $26 million guaranteed. At 6’5”, 230 lbs., Jackson has a clear size advantage over Jennings. That advantage, in my opinion, is negated by the off the field baggage Jackson brings with him in the form of previous holdouts, contract disputes, a DUI conviction and so on. He and Jennings are the same age and have played almost exactly the same number of games (88 for Jennings, 92 for Jackson), so the stat comparison is probably as close as we’re going to get to fair. That being said, Jennings has clearly outperformed Jackson. He has nearly 1500 more yards and 12 more touchdowns than Jackson since entering the league, and has maintained an impeccable reputation as a model citizen while he’s been at it. Jennings has produced roughly 32% more than Jackson in terms of yardage and touchdowns, and could logically argue that he deserves to be compensated accordingly. Although this comparison is the height of over-simplification, that would put Jennings at a five or six year deal, with somewhere between $35 and $40 million guaranteed.

Jennings is already the third highest paid player on the team (behind only Aaron Rodgers and Charles Woodson, which is perfectly justifiable), so this type of contract will not represent a huge raise for him. That being said, Jennings has not exactly been underpaid to this point in his career. A contract guaranteeing money in the $35-$40 million range will not cripple the franchise, and I do not expect Jennings to demand more than that. Look for his total cap hit (signing bonus plus salary plus roster/incentive bonuses) to approach $10 million per year.

I’ve obviously taken the position that the Packers fully intend to resign Jennings because that is what I believe they will do. Although there has been very little public discussion of this particular contract situation (a credit to the Packers’ front office, Greg Jennings, and his agent), I don’t think it’s because there isn’t work being done to keep number 85 in Green Bay. Letting players like Scott Wells and Cullen Jenkins depart in free agency is part of Ted Thompson’s master plan to keep the talent he thinks is essential. By mostly ignoring free agency, not overspending on signing bonuses, employing a lot of young (and consequentially cheap) talent and letting players walk when he thinks the price isn’t right, Thompson has given himself the ability to resign a superstar like Jennings. Yes we have other stars with soon to be expired contracts, but Jennings is a must sign.

O-Line Shuffle

                Following two major departures and one major acquisition in the offseason, the offensive line is a position group in transition heading into the 2012 season. Veteran left tackle Chad Clifton was cut (due to recurring injuries) and Scott Wells was allowed to leave via free agency. The Packers apparently made very little effort to resign Wells, despite the fact that he has been a steady presence along the line for years now, and has earned public praise from Aaron Rodgers for his tremendous knowledge of the offensive system. Wells never had the body type that the Packers’ front office wanted at the center position (just not big enough), but I feel that his departure was more a function of the huge names set to be resigned by the Packers in the next few years (a topic I’ll be exploring in detail very soon). Whatever the case may be, Clifton and Wells are gone, and Jeff Saturday and Marshall Newhouse are now tasked with manning the two most important offensive positions outside of quarterback.

                I’ve always said (not that it’s groundbreaking or difficult for the average fan to ascertain) that your football team is all about the offensive line. Although that may seem a bit counterintuitive since I just admitted that QB is the most important position, even the greatest quarterbacks in the history of the game can’t get it done without at least a decent line in front of them. The players returning to the offensive line from last year are solid young players. TJ Lang, Josh Sitton and Bryan Bulaga have experience playing together, should know the offense very well by now and have shown the ability to pass block extremely well. While it’s tough for an outsider to really place blame as far as why we haven’t had more production in the running game, it’d be tough to label these guys great run blockers based the numbers. Now, Green Bay clearly operates a pass first offense, so the lack of run production may be a function of play calling and game planning, therefore it also wouldn’t be fair of me to label the returning starters poor run blockers either. My take on these three guys is that we couldn’t really ask for much more at their positions, we’re lucky to have them back and healthy, and they’re young enough to hold down their positions for many years. The longer they play together, the better they’re going to be, and I look for the right side tandem of Sitton and Bulaga to be among the best in the league this year.

                The bad news, as stated before, is that we’ve got two new guys starting at left tackle and center. This ain’t your daddy’s offense, so making protection calls and adjustments is not as a simple as calling out a number to double team. Jeff Saturday (no doubt the starter at center considering his track record, experience, and contract) has a lot of work to do to get up to speed for week one. Now, Saturday is a 13 year starter that has surely learned a few tricks of the trade, and has had to be extremely flexible in snapping to and blocking for one Peyton Manning (who made more pre-snap adjustments than anyone I ever recall seeing). I think he should be fine after a shorter than average adjustment period. At 37 years old, he’s nothing more than a stop-gap solution at the position, and clearly an injury concern even considering his remarkable durability throughout his career. If he makes it the entire season as the starter, I’m very confident he can get the job done. If nothing else, he’ll give players behind him (Evan Dietrich-Smith, Sampsun Genus, Ray Dominguez) another year in the system before they’re thrown in the fray. The bigger concern will be who fills in at left tackle and how well they’re able to do so.

                Left tackle is hands-down the most important position on the offensive line, and the second most important position in football. The player is tasked with protecting the quarterback’s blindside, typically (though not always) against the opposing defense’s best pass rusher. Considering the ugly broken leg suffered by first round pick Derrick Sherrod last year, Marshall Newhouse seems to be the logical starter to begin the year. Newhouse had 13 starts last year in place of the injured Chad Clifton. He had by all accounts and up and down season at best, but did garner praise from both Mike McCarthy and Aaron Rodgers. I’m of the opinion that he couldn’t have played that well, considering the Packers gave Clifton his starting job back in week 17 of the regular season despite a 13 week respite. Chad went on to start the one and only playoff game despite a shaky performance just two weeks earlier. He was pulled during that game for poor play and replaced by Newhouse. That doesn’t exactly sound like a ringing endorsement from your coaching staff to me. ‘Yeah we’ll use you at left tackle, but god damn we’re gonna try not to.’

                McCarthy has said time and again that most players make the biggest leap from year one as a starter to year two. Newhouse is making that transition as we speak, will have had an entire offseason to prepare as the starter at left tackle, and should benefit from the seasoning. McCarthy and Rodgers no doubt want to keep his confidence high, hence the very public praise for the young player. I don’t think the praise was all about show, but if he was as good as they said he was, why replace him in the most important game of the season with a guy with only mostly functioning legs? I clearly see Newhouse as the biggest question mark going into the 2012 season, and count him among the most important players on the team. Bear in mind that there is a huge difference between ‘most important’ and ‘best’ players on the team. Poor play from Newhouse could derail the whole season, and fast. Great play from Newhouse could give Rodgers the kind of time he needs to repeat his amazing performance last year. Average play from Newhouse would likely be enough to get us back to the playoffs, and anything can happen from there. It’s on the rest of the line to coach up the relatively green Newhouse and make sure he holds on to the starting job. If Newhouse turns out to be the next long-term solution at left tackle, the Packers are poised to return to the offensive line glory days of the mid-late nineties. If he ends up a turn-style, we might need to consider keeping three quarterbacks on the 53 for a change.

What to do With Number 21

                I read an email response by Jason Wilde on ESPNMilwaukee.com about whether he thought Charles Woodson’s number would be retired by the Packers after he retired. Considering the fact that only five total numbers have been retired in the 83 year history of the organization (Don Huston, Tony Canadeo, Bart Starr, Ray Nitschke, Reggie White), I completely agreed with Wilde that number 21 would, in fact, not be retired once Woodson hangs up his cleats. Don’t get me wrong, I love me some Charles Woodson, and I think he’s easily to second most important player on the team, with the third most important (whoever that may be) a good distance behind Woodson and Rodgers in terms of importance. I just don’t think he fits the bill of a number retirement candidate. For one thing, he played too many years outside of Green Bay. If Woodson’s eight years in Oakland (’98-’05) had been in Green Bay, that might be a different story. That being said, he’s been nothing short of amazing as a Packer, so it got me thinking as far as how his legacy might be honored outside of retiring his number.

                Wilde mentioned it briefly, so I can’t take full credit, but a stated reverence and selective assignment of the number 21 might be a nice compromise. What I mean by that is, be outspoken as an organization as far as what the number now means. That means coaches, players, gm’s, etc. should make it clear to the public that they understand 21 is not just any number in Green Bay anymore, and wearing the number comes with a certain level of respect and responsibility. Furthermore, don’t just hand the number out to anybody. Any player (and especially any rookie) better show you something as a staff before you give him the number. A player like Randall Cobb comes to mind (yes, I know he plays offense) as a guy who clearly had a feel for the pro game early on, and whose play in practice demanded time on the field from day one. If a guy shows flashes of elite ability, and the coaches think he can handle the pressure, give him the number and tell him it’s time to be a leader.

                The University of Michigan (coincidentally Woodson’s alma mater) employed this type of system with the number one. This number (the most coveted number on the team according to mgoblue.com) gained notoriety during and following the career of three-time All-American wide receiver Anthony Carter, who played from 1979-1982. The number has since been given only to wide receivers, and is given out only to those players who show tremendous promise early on. The honor comes along with pressure and expectations, but presents a great opportunity for the player to showcase his ability to be a leader when called upon. The number is not given out every year, and has not been worn since NFL receiver Braylon Edwards left Michigan in 2004. It’s a great system that not only provides an opportunity for a young player to answer the call to lead, but one that’s also fun for the fans and players alike.

                I’d love to see the number 21 take on increased significance in Green Bay. Let’s not just hand it out to the next fast guy that can’t catch simply because Woodson retired. Defensive backs are in my opinion the most exciting players to watch. When a special player like Charles Woodson comes along, it’s a real treat to watch. His understanding of the game is so clearly higher than that of the players around him, and his commitment to playing the game the right way makes it impossible for him not to stand out. Now I’m not ready to craft an homage to Charles just yet, as I think he’s got plenty of football left to play, but even if his career were to end today, he’d be deserving of some type of honor within the organization.

                It’s a fun idea that takes very little effort from the organization to achieve. Let’s say Charles retires in three years, and nobody wears the number for five or six years after that. Wouldn’t you be excited to see what the guy who the coaches finally deemed worthy of the number has to offer? Charles plays the game a certain way (the right way), and it would be a tremendous honor and opportunity for any young player to don his number in Green Bay after he’s moved on.